30
HRs allowed
14.0%
HR rate (pool)
25.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.71
FIP
3.71
xFIP
+1.00
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 113.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Nola.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Knuckle Curve Breaking
32.9%
77.0
-2.4°
9
-1.1
Fastball Hard
23.6%
84.9
32.2°
10
+2.7
Sinker Hard
18.6%
87.1
19.9°
10
+2.6
Changeup Offspeed
16.3%
80.3
3.3°
2
-0.5
Cutter Hard
7.8%
85.5
18.6°
1
+2.4
Slider Breaking
0.8%
86.4
2.8°
1
+3.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups214
HRs allowed (pool)30
Pool HR rate14.0%
Pool HR/game day1.15
Top-15 matchups30
HRs to top-157
Overall HR/FB25.0% 95
HR/9—
FIP4.71 74
xFIP3.71
FIP − xFIP+1.00 91
Barrel% allowed19.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 32.9% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle-2.4°
HRs allowed9
Pitches824
Fastball
Hard · 23.6% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle32.2°
HRs allowed10
Pitches590
Sinker
Hard · 18.6% usage
+2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.9°
HRs allowed10
Pitches466
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle3.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches407
Cutter
Hard · 7.8% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches194
Slider
Breaking · 0.8% usage
+3.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.4 mph
Avg launch angle2.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches21
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Nola.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
30 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 396 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
7
1
107.0
2026-08-19
9
1
106.8
2026-08-13
8
1
105.8
2026-08-08
7
1
104.8
2026-08-03
7
1
102.7
2026-07-28
9
1
107.4
2026-07-22
9
2
112.2
2026-07-16
8
2
108.6
2026-07-10
8
3
106.7
2026-07-05
7
0
100.5
2026-06-29
7
0
111.0
2026-06-24
7
1
102.8
2026-06-18
7
1
106.5
2026-06-13
9
2
109.0
2026-06-07
7
0
104.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Aaron Nola isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Aaron Nola isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
105
14
13%
8
3
38%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Aaron Nola
How many home runs has Aaron Nola allowed this season?
Aaron Nola has allowed 30 home runs across 26 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Aaron Nola?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Aaron Nola include Matt Olson (2), Alec Burleson (1), Angel Martinez (1) and 40 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.