20
HRs allowed
13.3%
HR rate (pool)
24.6%
Overall HR/FB
4.51
FIP
3.67
xFIP
+0.84
FIP − xFIP gap
#1
Leakiest SP today (of 2, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
94
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 94th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 113.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 51.5%
BRK 34.7%
OFF 13.8%
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Knuckle Curve Breaking
33.6%
75.7
-4.5°
6
-1.0
Fastball Hard
23.8%
85.1
36.4°
6
+3.4
Sinker Hard
19.9%
86.8
20.6°
7
+2.5
Changeup Offspeed
13.8%
78.5
4.4°
1
-1.3
Cutter Hard
7.8%
85.2
16.6°
1
+3.2
Slider Breaking
1.1%
85.0
-0.1°
0
-4.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups150
HRs allowed (pool)20
Pool HR rate13.3%
Pool HR/game day1.11
Top-15 matchups14
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB24.6% 94
HR/9—
FIP4.51 66
xFIP3.67
FIP − xFIP+0.84 85
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 33.6% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.7 mph
Avg launch angle-4.5°
HRs allowed6
Pitches593
Fastball
Hard · 23.8% usage
+3.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle36.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches421
Sinker
Hard · 19.9% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.8 mph
Avg launch angle20.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches352
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.8% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches243
Cutter
Hard · 7.8% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches138
Slider
Breaking · 1.1% usage
-4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle-0.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches20
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
20 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 401 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
8
3
106.7
2026-07-05
7
0
100.5
2026-06-29
7
0
111.0
2026-06-24
7
1
102.8
2026-06-18
7
1
106.5
2026-06-13
9
2
109.0
2026-06-07
7
0
104.2
2026-06-02
9
1
113.5
2026-05-26
9
2
108.0
2026-05-20
9
1
109.7
2026-05-15
9
2
111.7
2026-05-09
9
1
101.8
2026-05-04
9
0
107.9
2026-04-26
9
2
109.4
2026-04-20
9
1
111.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Citizens Bank Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.109
Wind
1 mph from NE
Temp
75°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
1
75°
+3
8:10p
1
75°
+3
9:10p
1
75°
+3
10:10p
1
75°
+3
11:10p
1
75°
+3
+3
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 1 mph from NE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.