14
HRs allowed
9.7%
HR rate (pool)
17.3%
Overall HR/FB
5.2
FIP
4.31
xFIP
+0.89
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
82
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 82th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 112.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Kyle Freeland.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
25.2%
84.8
28.2°
7
+3.0
Cutter Hard
21.1%
83.5
20.9°
2
-0.0
Knuckle Curve Breaking
20.7%
84.5
11.3°
5
+2.3
Changeup Offspeed
15.2%
87.8
7.0°
1
+1.7
Sweeper Breaking
12.0%
80.5
17.2°
2
-2.4
Sinker Hard
5.7%
88.6
11.8°
1
+4.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups144
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate9.7%
Pool HR/game day0.82
Top-15 matchups19
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB17.3% 82
HR/9—
FIP5.2 85
xFIP4.31
FIP − xFIP+0.89 87
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 25.2% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle28.2°
HRs allowed7
Pitches382
Cutter
Hard · 21.1% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle20.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches319
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 20.7% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.3°
HRs allowed5
Pitches314
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.2% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.8 mph
Avg launch angle7.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches230
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.0% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle17.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches182
Sinker
Hard · 5.7% usage
+4.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.6 mph
Avg launch angle11.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches87
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Kyle Freeland.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 398 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
1
106.5
2026-07-06
8
1
111.8
2026-07-01
8
0
106.2
2026-06-24
7
2
105.8
2026-06-19
7
0
107.5
2026-06-13
8
1
112.9
2026-06-07
9
1
112.0
2026-06-01
9
0
111.6
2026-05-26
9
2
111.5
2026-05-20
9
2
110.9
2026-05-15
9
0
109.1
2026-05-09
9
2
110.8
2026-05-03
9
0
110.0
2026-04-12
7
1
109.3
2026-04-07
9
1
106.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Kyle Freeland isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.