25
HRs allowed
10.3%
HR rate (pool)
25.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.9
FIP
3.09
xFIP
+0.81
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
18.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.3 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 116.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
28.6%
79.5
7.6°
7
-0.6
Fastball Hard
26.8%
82.5
31.5°
5
-0.7
Curveball Breaking
21.8%
84.3
-2.1°
7
+0.4
Sinker Hard
16.5%
87.5
18.3°
6
+0.8
Cutter Hard
6.4%
87.1
16.0°
3
+1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups242
HRs allowed (pool)25
Pool HR rate10.3%
Pool HR/game day0.86
Top-15 matchups30
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB25.1% 95
HR/9—
FIP3.9 44
xFIP3.09
FIP − xFIP+0.81 86
Barrel% allowed18.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Sweeper
Breaking · 28.6% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches728
Fastball
Hard · 26.8% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches682
Curveball
Breaking · 21.8% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle-2.1°
HRs allowed7
Pitches555
Sinker
Hard · 16.5% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.3°
HRs allowed6
Pitches420
Cutter
Hard · 6.4% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle16.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches162
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
25 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.3 EV · 391 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
5
1
110.8
2026-08-20
8
1
103.4
2026-08-14
9
2
115.5
2026-08-08
9
1
102.6
2026-08-02
8
0
105.2
2026-07-28
7
2
112.5
2026-07-23
9
0
105.1
2026-07-18
9
3
108.8
2026-07-17
6
0
—
2026-07-09
8
1
108.4
2026-07-03
9
1
108.2
2026-06-28
8
0
105.8
2026-06-22
7
0
104.6
2026-06-17
8
2
110.0
2026-06-14
9
0
—
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Gavin Williams isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Gavin Williams isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
136
11
8%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
7
2
29%
16
1
6%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Gavin Williams
How many home runs has Gavin Williams allowed this season?
Gavin Williams has allowed 25 home runs across 29 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Gavin Williams?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Gavin Williams include Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2), Jorge Polanco (2), Maikel Garcia (2) and 45 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.