15
HRs allowed
8.7%
HR rate (pool)
23.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.02
FIP
3.24
xFIP
+0.78
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.2 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 116.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
26.9%
79.8
9.8°
5
+0.2
Fastball Hard
23.2%
83.6
31.4°
3
-0.4
Curveball Breaking
22.1%
85.2
-4.7°
5
+0.2
Sinker Hard
19.1%
87.5
17.9°
2
-0.9
Cutter Hard
8.7%
86.8
16.5°
3
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups172
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate8.7%
Pool HR/game day0.75
Top-15 matchups20
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB23.7% 93
HR/9—
FIP4.02 48
xFIP3.24
FIP − xFIP+0.78 83
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sweeper
Breaking · 26.9% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed5
Pitches492
Fastball
Hard · 23.2% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle31.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches424
Curveball
Breaking · 22.1% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle-4.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches405
Sinker
Hard · 19.1% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.5 mph
Avg launch angle17.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches349
Cutter
Hard · 8.7% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.8 mph
Avg launch angle16.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches160
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.2 EV · 388 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
8
1
108.4
2026-07-03
9
1
108.2
2026-06-28
8
0
105.8
2026-06-22
7
0
104.6
2026-06-17
8
2
110.0
2026-06-14
9
0
—
2026-06-08
7
2
104.9
2026-06-03
9
2
107.5
2026-05-27
9
0
108.3
2026-05-22
9
0
108.5
2026-05-17
9
1
111.6
2026-05-10
9
0
107.8
2026-05-05
9
1
108.6
2026-04-29
9
0
110.8
2026-04-24
9
1
116.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Gavin Williams isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.