28
HRs allowed
9.8%
HR rate (pool)
25.8%
Overall HR/FB
3.85
FIP
3.02
xFIP
+0.83
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
17.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.6 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 116.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups285
HRs allowed (pool)28
Pool HR rate9.8%
Pool HR/game day0.82
Top-15 matchups31
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB25.8% 95
HR/9—
FIP3.85 40
xFIP3.02
FIP − xFIP+0.83 87
Barrel% allowed17.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-18
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Gavin Williams.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
28 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.6 EV · 394 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-25
9
2
108.4
2026-09-20
9
0
104.8
2026-09-14
9
1
107.2
2026-09-06
8
0
111.1
2026-09-01
8
0
111.8
2026-08-25
5
1
110.8
2026-08-20
8
1
103.4
2026-08-14
9
2
115.5
2026-08-08
9
1
102.6
2026-08-02
8
0
105.2
2026-07-28
7
2
112.5
2026-07-23
9
0
105.1
2026-07-18
9
3
108.8
2026-07-17
6
0
—
2026-07-09
8
1
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Gavin Williams isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Gavin Williams isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
170
12
7%
18
3
17%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
7
2
29%
16
1
6%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Gavin Williams
How many home runs has Gavin Williams allowed this season?
Gavin Williams has allowed 28 home runs across 34 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Gavin Williams?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Gavin Williams include Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2), Jorge Polanco (2), Maikel Garcia (2) and 47 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.