18
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
20.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.94
FIP
3.76
xFIP
+0.18
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.2 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 7 HR ↑
30D · 10 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Walker Buehler.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
23.3%
82.3
20.6°
0
-1.8
Fastball Hard
21.1%
86.7
24.5°
4
+1.4
Sinker Hard
16.9%
84.2
16.5°
0
-0.9
Knuckle Curve Breaking
10.8%
86.1
1.7°
3
+3.8
Slider Breaking
10.5%
82.9
21.8°
1
-3.0
Changeup Offspeed
9.7%
87.1
4.2°
4
+5.9
Sweeper Breaking
7.7%
76.5
23.6°
4
+2.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups162
HRs allowed (pool)18
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day0.95
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB20.6% 89
HR/9—
FIP3.94 45
xFIP3.76
FIP − xFIP+0.18 59
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 23.3% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle20.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches371
Fastball
Hard · 21.1% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.7 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches337
Sinker
Hard · 16.9% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches270
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 10.8% usage
+3.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle1.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches172
Slider
Breaking · 10.5% usage
-3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle21.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches168
Changeup
Offspeed · 9.7% usage
+5.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle4.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches154
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.7% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.5 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed4
Pitches122
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Walker Buehler.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
18 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.2 EV · 394 ft
10 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
7
0
105.3
2026-07-06
7
2
106.1
2026-07-01
9
5
106.4
2026-06-26
7
1
103.9
2026-06-20
9
1
108.0
2026-06-14
9
1
107.9
2026-06-08
7
0
108.3
2026-06-03
9
2
111.9
2026-05-27
9
1
105.9
2026-05-22
9
0
108.9
2026-05-16
9
1
108.7
2026-05-10
9
1
110.8
2026-05-05
9
1
106.3
2026-04-28
9
1
106.6
2026-04-22
9
1
109.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Walker Buehler isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.