16
HRs allowed
10.3%
HR rate (pool)
22.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.85
FIP
2.98
xFIP
+0.87
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
92
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 92th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.5 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 114.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Weathers.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.2%
86.0
31.7°
9
+2.1
Changeup Offspeed
23.6%
80.7
0.8°
4
-0.1
Sweeper Breaking
20.4%
79.0
9.9°
1
-0.3
Sinker Hard
17.8%
84.3
13.9°
1
-0.6
Slider Breaking
11.0%
83.7
14.1°
2
-0.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups155
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate10.3%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups27
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB22.6% 92
HR/9—
FIP3.85 41
xFIP2.98
FIP − xFIP+0.87 86
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 27.2% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle31.7°
HRs allowed9
Pitches445
Changeup
Offspeed · 23.6% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle0.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches387
Sweeper
Breaking · 20.4% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.0 mph
Avg launch angle9.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches335
Sinker
Hard · 17.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle13.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches292
Slider
Breaking · 11.0% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle14.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches180
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Weathers.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.5 EV · 404 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
8
2
111.9
2026-07-05
9
0
109.4
2026-06-29
8
0
106.7
2026-06-24
8
0
106.0
2026-06-18
7
1
108.3
2026-06-12
7
2
111.4
2026-06-05
9
2
112.8
2026-05-30
9
3
109.2
2026-05-24
9
0
104.7
2026-05-23
9
0
—
2026-05-18
9
2
109.8
2026-05-11
9
1
103.2
2026-05-02
9
1
114.6
2026-04-25
9
2
107.7
2026-04-19
9
0
113.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryan Weathers isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.