20
HRs allowed
12.0%
HR rate (pool)
20.8%
Overall HR/FB
5.75
FIP
4.51
xFIP
+1.24
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.6 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 116.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Sproat.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
24.8%
82.1
9.7°
3
+0.2
Cutter Hard
23.6%
81.9
19.5°
4
+1.2
Fastball Hard
22.4%
84.1
30.5°
1
-0.7
Curveball Breaking
11.1%
82.4
0.6°
5
+3.0
Sweeper Breaking
10.0%
80.5
19.6°
2
+2.2
Changeup Offspeed
8.0%
81.8
-4.3°
0
-0.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups166
HRs allowed (pool)20
Pool HR rate12.0%
Pool HR/game day1.05
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB20.8% 89
HR/9—
FIP5.75 91
xFIP4.51
FIP − xFIP+1.24 94
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 24.8% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle9.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches370
Cutter
Hard · 23.6% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle19.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches353
Fastball
Hard · 22.4% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle30.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches335
Curveball
Breaking · 11.1% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle0.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches165
Sweeper
Breaking · 10.0% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle19.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches150
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.0% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle-4.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches120
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Sproat.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
20 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.6 EV · 404 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
1
109.2
2026-07-10
9
0
—
2026-07-05
8
0
116.8
2026-06-30
8
1
113.9
2026-06-23
8
0
112.6
2026-06-17
9
1
102.0
2026-06-10
8
2
108.2
2026-06-05
9
1
112.1
2026-05-30
9
2
115.1
2026-05-24
9
1
105.5
2026-05-18
9
1
108.6
2026-05-12
9
1
104.1
2026-05-06
9
0
105.5
2026-05-05
9
0
—
2026-04-29
9
4
109.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Brandon Sproat isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.