7
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
31.8%
Overall HR/FB
7.16
FIP
5.05
xFIP
+2.12
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
98
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 98th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.8 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 112.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Shane Bieber.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.5%
87.0
28.0°
4
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
19.0%
85.9
10.1°
1
-2.0
Knuckle Curve Breaking
18.9%
90.1
2.2°
1
+2.1
Cutter Hard
12.2%
79.2
9.6°
2
+1.0
Slider Breaking
10.3%
85.8
5.8°
2
+4.1
Sinker Hard
4.0%
74.9
6.4°
0
-1.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups63
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day0.88
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB31.8% 98
HR/9—
FIP7.16 98
xFIP5.05
FIP − xFIP+2.12 98
Barrel% allowed19.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-19
Fastball
Hard · 35.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.0 mph
Avg launch angle28.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches291
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.0% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle10.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches156
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 18.9% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against90.1 mph
Avg launch angle2.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches155
Cutter
Hard · 12.2% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.2 mph
Avg launch angle9.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches100
Slider
Breaking · 10.3% usage
+4.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle5.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches84
Sinker
Hard · 4.0% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.9 mph
Avg launch angle6.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches33
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Shane Bieber.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.8 EV · 402 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-14
8
1
111.9
2026-08-09
8
1
107.7
2026-08-03
8
0
109.9
2026-07-28
8
1
110.3
2026-07-23
8
0
108.2
2026-07-18
9
0
102.8
2026-07-10
6
1
112.0
2026-07-04
8
3
109.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Shane Bieber isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Shane Bieber isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
8
3
38%
25
1
4%
8
1
12%
8
1
12%
6
1
17%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Shane Bieber
How many home runs has Shane Bieber allowed this season?
Shane Bieber has allowed 7 home runs across 8 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Shane Bieber?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Shane Bieber include Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Cal Raleigh (1), Coby Mayo (1) and 11 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.