18
HRs allowed
12.0%
HR rate (pool)
25.1%
Overall HR/FB
6.8
FIP
5.48
xFIP
+1.33
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed
61.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Max Scherzer.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
47.6%
81.3
35.7°
4
-0.9
Slider Breaking
17.0%
82.0
20.2°
7
+3.1
Changeup Offspeed
15.6%
79.8
13.0°
1
+0.3
Curveball Breaking
14.3%
80.6
18.6°
1
-0.6
Cutter Hard
5.4%
78.7
28.1°
2
+0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups150
HRs allowed (pool)18
Pool HR rate12.0%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups20
HRs to top-156
Overall HR/FB25.1% 95
HR/9—
FIP6.8 98
xFIP5.48
FIP − xFIP+1.33 96
Barrel% allowed16.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed61.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 47.6% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle35.7°
HRs allowed4
Pitches730
Slider
Breaking · 17.0% usage
+3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.2°
HRs allowed7
Pitches261
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.6% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle13.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches240
Curveball
Breaking · 14.3% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle18.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches220
Cutter
Hard · 5.4% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle28.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches83
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Max Scherzer.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
18 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 395 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-27
6
0
109.6
2026-09-23
9
2
110.9
2026-09-22
6
0
—
2026-09-16
9
0
105.8
2026-09-11
7
1
108.7
2026-09-05
9
1
111.9
2026-08-30
8
0
106.1
2026-08-25
9
0
107.7
2026-08-19
9
1
104.8
2026-08-13
9
1
103.1
2026-08-08
8
2
106.7
2026-08-02
9
0
105.1
2026-07-27
8
0
107.6
2026-06-10
8
3
108.3
2026-04-24
9
2
108.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Max Scherzer isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Max Scherzer isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
92
11
12%
15
2
13%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 7. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Max Scherzer
How many home runs has Max Scherzer allowed this season?
Max Scherzer has allowed 18 home runs across 18 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Max Scherzer?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Max Scherzer include Ben Rice (2), Bryce Harper (2), Coby Mayo (2) and 32 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.