10
HRs allowed
22.7%
HR rate (pool)
24.4%
Overall HR/FB
7.9
FIP
5.82
xFIP
+2.09
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
94
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 94th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.6 EV · 397 ft
max EV allowed 110.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Max Scherzer.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
48.2%
81.2
32.3°
3
+0.8
Slider Breaking
22.1%
80.3
21.7°
4
+4.5
Changeup Offspeed
15.9%
80.0
-2.1°
0
-0.8
Curveball Breaking
12.9%
83.7
21.6°
1
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups44
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate22.7%
Pool HR/game day2.0
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB24.4% 94
HR/9—
FIP7.9 99
xFIP5.82
FIP − xFIP+2.09 98
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 48.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle32.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches240
Slider
Breaking · 22.1% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle21.7°
HRs allowed4
Pitches110
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.9% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle-2.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches79
Curveball
Breaking · 12.9% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle21.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches64
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Max Scherzer.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.6 EV · 397 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-10
8
3
108.3
2026-04-24
9
2
108.9
2026-04-18
9
1
102.3
2026-04-06
9
3
110.7
2026-03-31
9
1
110.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Max Scherzer isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.