31
HRs allowed
15.1%
HR rate (pool)
24.3%
Overall HR/FB
5.61
FIP
4.34
xFIP
+1.27
FIP − xFIP gap
#2
Leakiest SP today (of 24, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 112.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 58.5%
BRK 41.4%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 5
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
49.5%
84.8
21.9°
10
+0.3
Slider Breaking
26.4%
84.1
9.2°
6
+0.6
Sweeper Breaking
15.0%
84.5
11.6°
6
+1.2
Cutter Hard
6.8%
80.5
13.8°
4
+3.9
Fastball Hard
2.2%
81.6
23.6°
1
+7.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups205
HRs allowed (pool)31
Pool HR rate15.1%
Pool HR/game day1.24
Top-15 matchups20
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB24.3% 93
HR/9—
FIP5.61 91
xFIP4.34
FIP − xFIP+1.27 95
Barrel% allowed21.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Sinker
Hard · 49.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle21.9°
HRs allowed10
Pitches1197
Slider
Breaking · 26.4% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle9.2°
HRs allowed6
Pitches637
Sweeper
Breaking · 15.0% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed6
Pitches363
Cutter
Hard · 6.8% usage
+3.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches165
Fastball
Hard · 2.2% usage
+7.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches54
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
31 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 399 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
3
1
105.5
2026-08-20
8
1
108.6
2026-08-15
9
2
108.7
2026-08-09
8
0
109.8
2026-08-04
8
0
104.0
2026-07-29
9
1
104.1
2026-07-22
9
0
110.3
2026-07-17
9
1
111.3
2026-07-09
7
0
105.8
2026-07-03
9
1
107.2
2026-06-28
9
3
110.0
2026-06-22
9
0
105.8
2026-06-16
7
0
107.2
2026-06-10
5
0
106.3
2026-06-05
6
1
111.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Great American Ball Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.074
Wind
2 mph from W
Temp
91°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
2
91°
+6
7:40p
2
91°
+6
8:40p
3
89°
+6
9:40p
3
87°
+4
10:40p
4
84°
+2
+5
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 2 mph from SW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
328ft
avg
CF
404ft
avg
RF
325ft
avg
vs LHH → RF ▲ leans
349ft
9 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
347ft
4 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: RF 325 ft
HRs allowed avg 399 ft · n=31
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
111
15
14%
18
5
28%
9
5
56%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Brady Singer
Is Brady Singer likely to give up a home run tonight?
Brady Singer pitches tonight (SD @ CIN at Great American Ball Park). This season he has allowed 31 home runs across 25 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Brady Singer allowed this season?
Brady Singer has allowed 31 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Brady Singer?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Brady Singer include Alec Burleson (2), Bryan Reynolds (2), Kyle Manzardo (2) and 42 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.