14
HRs allowed
11.8%
HR rate (pool)
25.8%
Overall HR/FB
5.92
FIP
4.71
xFIP
+1.21
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Roki Sasaki.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.4%
86.0
26.6°
10
+1.9
Splitter Offspeed
24.3%
81.5
4.5°
4
-0.2
Slider Breaking
20.9%
80.5
11.7°
3
+0.4
Forkball Offspeed
11.4%
81.2
7.0°
2
+1.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups119
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate11.8%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups16
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB25.8% 95
HR/9—
FIP5.92 92
xFIP4.71
FIP − xFIP+1.21 93
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 43.4% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed10
Pitches646
Splitter
Offspeed · 24.3% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches361
Slider
Breaking · 20.9% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches311
Forkball
Offspeed · 11.4% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle7.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches169
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Roki Sasaki.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 400 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
2
107.9
2026-07-02
7
2
107.1
2026-06-26
7
1
103.6
2026-06-19
9
2
109.1
2026-06-12
8
1
105.8
2026-06-05
7
0
109.8
2026-05-30
9
1
103.0
2026-05-23
9
0
112.8
2026-05-17
9
0
109.6
2026-05-11
9
1
109.3
2026-05-02
9
1
110.0
2026-04-25
9
1
108.0
2026-04-19
9
2
111.8
2026-03-30
9
0
107.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Roki Sasaki isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.