19
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
25.8%
Overall HR/FB
5.7
FIP
4.52
xFIP
+1.18
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.5 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Roki Sasaki.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.1%
86.0
26.1°
12
+1.7
Splitter Offspeed
27.9%
82.5
0.8°
4
-1.1
Slider Breaking
21.2%
81.0
10.4°
4
+0.6
Forkball Offspeed
8.8%
80.6
8.0°
2
+1.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups171
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day0.9
Top-15 matchups24
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB25.8% 95
HR/9—
FIP5.7 92
xFIP4.52
FIP − xFIP+1.18 94
Barrel% allowed20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 42.1% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle26.1°
HRs allowed12
Pitches892
Splitter
Offspeed · 27.9% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle0.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches591
Slider
Breaking · 21.2% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle10.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches448
Forkball
Offspeed · 8.8% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle8.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches186
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Roki Sasaki.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 398 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-26
9
2
110.4
2026-08-19
6
1
103.2
2026-08-13
7
0
106.3
2026-08-07
6
1
99.4
2026-07-30
9
0
108.0
2026-07-24
7
1
110.2
2026-07-17
8
0
106.6
2026-07-08
9
2
107.9
2026-07-02
7
2
107.1
2026-06-26
7
1
103.6
2026-06-19
9
2
109.1
2026-06-12
8
1
105.8
2026-06-05
7
0
109.8
2026-05-30
9
1
103.0
2026-05-23
9
0
112.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Roki Sasaki isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Roki Sasaki isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
84
9
11%
15
3
20%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
7
1
14%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Roki Sasaki
How many home runs has Roki Sasaki allowed this season?
Roki Sasaki has allowed 19 home runs across 21 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Roki Sasaki?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Roki Sasaki include Kyle Karros (2), Mickey Moniak (2), Adolis Garcia (1) and 20 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.