33
HRs allowed
17.2%
HR rate (pool)
17.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.95
FIP
4.37
xFIP
+0.57
FIP − xFIP gap
#1
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
79
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Susceptible
Vulnerability 79th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.5 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 112.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 45.9%
BRK 29.9%
OFF 24.2%
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 4
Long shots · 3 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (45.9% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.8%
83.7
30.3°
13
+1.8
Changeup Offspeed
24.2%
76.8
13.0°
5
+1.1
Slider Breaking
24.2%
83.8
21.8°
10
+0.8
Sweeper Breaking
5.7%
77.4
14.4°
2
+2.0
Cutter Hard
2.1%
78.9
11.8°
0
-0.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups192
HRs allowed (pool)33
Pool HR rate17.2%
Pool HR/game day1.43
Top-15 matchups21
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB17.4% 79
HR/9—
FIP4.95 81
xFIP4.37
FIP − xFIP+0.57 79
Barrel% allowed20.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 43.8% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle30.3°
HRs allowed13
Pitches907
Changeup
Offspeed · 24.2% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.8 mph
Avg launch angle13.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches502
Slider
Breaking · 24.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle21.8°
HRs allowed10
Pitches501
Sweeper
Breaking · 5.7% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.4 mph
Avg launch angle14.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches119
Cutter
Hard · 2.1% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches44
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
33 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.5 EV · 399 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
8
0
109.6
2026-08-19
9
1
110.3
2026-07-31
8
2
103.0
2026-07-26
9
0
107.9
2026-07-20
7
1
110.9
2026-07-08
8
1
105.2
2026-06-30
8
0
107.0
2026-06-25
7
1
107.0
2026-06-19
6
3
108.7
2026-06-14
8
4
112.7
2026-06-08
9
3
110.2
2026-06-03
9
2
108.9
2026-05-27
9
2
107.7
2026-05-22
9
3
109.6
2026-05-17
9
2
108.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Sutter Health Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.234
Wind
10 mph from SSW
Temp
86°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:05p
10
86°
+18
2:05p
10
86°
+18
3:05p
10
86°
+18
4:05p
10
86°
+18
5:05p
10
86°
+18
+18
Strong green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 10 mph from SSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
325ft
avg
CF
403ft
avg
RF
325ft
avg
No short porch vs league
HRs allowed avg 399 ft · n=30
by hand — L 8 · R 13
A's temporary park (Sacramento)
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
82
14
17%
17
7
41%
9
3
33%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Jeffrey Springs
Is Jeffrey Springs likely to give up a home run tonight?
Jeffrey Springs pitches tonight (BAL @ ATH at Sutter Health Park). This season he has allowed 33 home runs across 23 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Jeffrey Springs allowed this season?
Jeffrey Springs has allowed 33 home runs across 23 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Jeffrey Springs?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Jeffrey Springs include Addison Barger (2), Angel Martinez (2), Brandon Lowe (2) and 49 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.