21
HRs allowed
14.2%
HR rate (pool)
25.7%
Overall HR/FB
6.28
FIP
4.62
xFIP
+1.66
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.0 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 114.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jameson Taillon.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.3%
85.2
32.6°
10
+1.5
Cutter Hard
18.8%
82.7
27.6°
7
+2.0
Sweeper Breaking
16.1%
78.2
19.8°
3
-1.9
Changeup Offspeed
16.0%
80.7
15.9°
5
+1.5
Curveball Breaking
11.0%
87.4
9.9°
0
+0.7
Sinker Hard
9.9%
84.3
17.8°
3
+3.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups148
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate14.2%
Pool HR/game day1.24
Top-15 matchups22
HRs to top-156
Overall HR/FB25.7% 95
HR/9—
FIP6.28 96
xFIP4.62
FIP − xFIP+1.66 97
Barrel% allowed20.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 27.3% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle32.6°
HRs allowed10
Pitches408
Cutter
Hard · 18.8% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle27.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches280
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.1% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.2 mph
Avg launch angle19.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches240
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.0% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle15.9°
HRs allowed5
Pitches238
Curveball
Breaking · 11.0% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.4 mph
Avg launch angle9.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches164
Sinker
Hard · 9.9% usage
+3.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle17.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches148
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jameson Taillon.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.0 EV · 400 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-10
9
0
110.3
2026-08-05
8
1
114.8
2026-07-26
8
2
106.1
2026-07-20
8
2
108.9
2026-06-07
8
0
102.8
2026-06-02
9
1
110.0
2026-05-27
9
2
106.9
2026-05-22
9
1
108.7
2026-05-16
9
4
112.4
2026-05-10
9
1
110.6
2026-05-05
9
1
108.1
2026-04-29
9
1
102.9
2026-04-24
9
1
106.8
2026-04-18
9
1
110.2
2026-04-12
8
1
111.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jameson Taillon isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Jameson Taillon isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
69
7
10%
17
4
24%
9
4
44%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 9. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Jameson Taillon
How many home runs has Jameson Taillon allowed this season?
Jameson Taillon has allowed 21 home runs across 17 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Jameson Taillon?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Jameson Taillon include Jose Altuve (2), Rhys Hoskins (2), Agustin Ramirez (1) and 39 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.