16
HRs allowed
13.9%
HR rate (pool)
25.1%
Overall HR/FB
6.15
FIP
4.62
xFIP
+1.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.7 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 112.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 9 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jameson Taillon.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.3%
84.7
32.4°
8
+1.7
Cutter Hard
19.2%
82.0
27.0°
4
+0.6
Sweeper Breaking
16.5%
78.9
22.1°
3
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
15.2%
80.5
16.7°
5
+2.9
Curveball Breaking
10.9%
87.2
6.0°
0
-1.3
Sinker Hard
9.9%
84.0
20.5°
2
+3.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups115
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate13.9%
Pool HR/game day1.23
Top-15 matchups13
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB25.1% 95
HR/9—
FIP6.15 94
xFIP4.62
FIP − xFIP+1.53 96
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 28.3% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle32.4°
HRs allowed8
Pitches342
Cutter
Hard · 19.2% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle27.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches232
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.5% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.9 mph
Avg launch angle22.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches199
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.2% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle16.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches184
Curveball
Breaking · 10.9% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches131
Sinker
Hard · 9.9% usage
+3.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches119
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jameson Taillon.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.7 EV · 400 ft
9 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-07
8
0
102.8
2026-06-02
9
1
110.0
2026-05-27
9
2
106.9
2026-05-22
9
1
108.7
2026-05-16
9
4
112.4
2026-05-10
9
1
110.6
2026-05-05
9
1
108.1
2026-04-29
9
1
102.9
2026-04-24
9
1
106.8
2026-04-18
9
1
110.2
2026-04-12
8
1
111.0
2026-04-06
9
2
106.8
2026-03-31
9
0
111.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jameson Taillon isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.