11
HRs allowed
15.5%
HR rate (pool)
21.5%
Overall HR/FB
6.2
FIP
4.67
xFIP
+1.54
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
90
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 90th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.3 EV · 384 ft
max EV allowed 111.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Cole Ragans.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
55.8%
83.4
30.0°
4
-0.9
Changeup Offspeed
17.3%
78.7
20.4°
2
+2.5
Slider Breaking
13.8%
81.0
9.3°
1
+0.9
Knuckle Curve Breaking
8.1%
88.7
19.4°
3
+7.1
Cutter Hard
5.0%
78.8
-17.6°
0
+1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups71
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate15.5%
Pool HR/game day1.38
Top-15 matchups8
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB21.5% 90
HR/9—
FIP6.2 94
xFIP4.67
FIP − xFIP+1.54 96
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 55.8% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle30.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches404
Changeup
Offspeed · 17.3% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle20.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches125
Slider
Breaking · 13.8% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle9.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches100
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 8.1% usage
+7.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.7 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches59
Cutter
Hard · 5.0% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle-17.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches36
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Cole Ragans.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.3 EV · 384 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-06
9
0
106.4
2026-05-01
9
2
107.5
2026-04-25
9
1
110.0
2026-04-19
9
3
111.6
2026-04-14
8
0
106.7
2026-04-08
9
1
107.8
2026-04-02
9
1
106.8
2026-03-27
9
3
110.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Cole Ragans isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.