15
HRs allowed
14.4%
HR rate (pool)
21.8%
Overall HR/FB
6.49
FIP
5.45
xFIP
+1.04
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
91
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 91th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 385 ft
max EV allowed 113.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Eric Lauer.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
44.5%
81.2
35.4°
10
-0.2
Cutter Hard
19.1%
78.2
25.8°
4
+1.4
Changeup Offspeed
16.4%
84.3
16.8°
0
-0.3
Curveball Breaking
12.5%
81.8
11.0°
3
+1.6
Slider Breaking
7.5%
82.5
28.0°
1
+1.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups104
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate14.4%
Pool HR/game day1.25
Top-15 matchups13
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB21.8% 91
HR/9—
FIP6.49 96
xFIP5.45
FIP − xFIP+1.04 91
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 44.5% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle35.4°
HRs allowed10
Pitches546
Cutter
Hard · 19.1% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.2 mph
Avg launch angle25.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches235
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.4% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches201
Curveball
Breaking · 12.5% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle11.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches154
Slider
Breaking · 7.5% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle28.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches92
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Eric Lauer.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 385 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 12 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-06
9
1
102.6
2026-06-29
7
0
101.7
2026-06-22
9
1
106.8
2026-06-15
9
0
111.5
2026-06-09
8
2
111.6
2026-06-02
8
1
103.8
2026-05-26
9
2
111.4
2026-04-29
9
1
108.7
2026-04-22
9
2
113.2
2026-04-17
9
1
111.5
2026-04-11
9
3
105.1
2026-03-29
9
1
112.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Eric Lauer isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.