14
HRs allowed
11.7%
HR rate (pool)
15.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.12
FIP
4.64
xFIP
+0.48
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
70
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 70th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.2 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 112.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryne Nelson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
56.9%
84.2
27.9°
10
-0.4
Slider Breaking
20.2%
83.9
14.4°
4
+2.0
Cutter Hard
9.8%
83.2
19.5°
1
+0.7
Curveball Breaking
9.6%
83.5
11.2°
1
+1.6
Sinker Hard
3.5%
85.5
31.9°
2
+3.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups120
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate11.7%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB15.1% 70
HR/9—
FIP5.12 83
xFIP4.64
FIP − xFIP+0.48 73
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-28
Fastball
Hard · 56.9% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle27.9°
HRs allowed10
Pitches775
Slider
Breaking · 20.2% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches276
Cutter
Hard · 9.8% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle19.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches133
Curveball
Breaking · 9.6% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches131
Sinker
Hard · 3.5% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches48
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryne Nelson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.2 EV · 398 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-15
6
1
104.7
2026-06-10
8
2
111.9
2026-06-04
7
0
104.4
2026-05-30
9
3
107.9
2026-05-24
9
0
106.4
2026-05-19
9
2
111.2
2026-05-13
9
1
103.9
2026-05-08
9
1
111.0
2026-05-02
9
1
110.6
2026-04-26
9
1
112.2
2026-04-19
9
0
110.6
2026-04-08
9
0
110.6
2026-04-02
9
1
111.6
2026-03-27
9
1
108.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryne Nelson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Ryne Nelson isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
58
5
9%
9
3
33%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.