4
HRs allowed
23.5%
HR rate (pool)
12.7%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
50
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Susceptible
Vulnerability 50th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
81.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 107.0 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 111.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR
15D · 4 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Luis Morales.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.2%
87.9
29.9°
3
+6.1
Sweeper Breaking
17.2%
82.5
14.4°
0
+2.4
Sinker Hard
16.1%
83.1
11.9°
0
-0.7
Slider Breaking
15.4%
84.2
26.6°
2
+5.3
Changeup Offspeed
12.1%
84.2
42.2°
0
+4.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups17
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate23.5%
Pool HR/game day2.0
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.7% 50
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed81.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 39.2% usage
+6.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.9 mph
Avg launch angle29.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches107
Sweeper
Breaking · 17.2% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle14.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches47
Sinker
Hard · 16.1% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches44
Slider
Breaking · 15.4% usage
+5.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches42
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.1% usage
+4.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle42.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches33
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Luis Morales.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 107.0 EV · 391 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-04
9
2
111.1
2026-03-29
8
2
110.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Luis Morales isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.