30
HRs allowed
14.6%
HR rate (pool)
17.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.54
FIP
4.37
xFIP
+0.16
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
79
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 79th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 113.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Andrew Painter.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
32.9%
83.7
22.5°
9
+1.7
Slider Breaking
17.5%
82.4
12.2°
2
+1.2
Sweeper Breaking
16.4%
79.4
17.6°
3
-0.9
Changeup Offspeed
11.4%
81.1
-5.4°
1
-2.6
Sinker Hard
8.5%
84.0
15.8°
3
+0.3
Splitter Offspeed
7.6%
76.8
5.5°
3
+0.4
Curveball Breaking
5.8%
81.6
14.7°
0
-1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups205
HRs allowed (pool)30
Pool HR rate14.6%
Pool HR/game day1.25
Top-15 matchups14
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB17.7% 79
HR/9—
FIP4.54 69
xFIP4.37
FIP − xFIP+0.16 57
Barrel% allowed21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 32.9% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle22.5°
HRs allowed9
Pitches712
Slider
Breaking · 17.5% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle12.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches378
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.4% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.4 mph
Avg launch angle17.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches354
Changeup
Offspeed · 11.4% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle-5.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches246
Sinker
Hard · 8.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle15.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches183
Splitter
Offspeed · 7.6% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.8 mph
Avg launch angle5.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches164
Curveball
Breaking · 5.8% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches126
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Andrew Painter.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
30 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 396 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-24
9
0
104.1
2026-09-19
9
2
110.1
2026-09-13
9
1
104.5
2026-09-08
9
3
107.7
2026-09-02
9
1
105.9
2026-08-28
5
0
108.3
2026-08-22
8
1
105.9
2026-08-16
8
2
104.9
2026-08-10
8
0
108.9
2026-08-05
8
0
104.6
2026-07-31
9
1
109.9
2026-06-17
9
4
110.8
2026-06-12
9
1
108.5
2026-06-06
7
1
102.4
2026-05-31
9
3
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Andrew Painter isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Andrew Painter isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
94
15
16%
9
3
33%
18
2
11%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Andrew Painter
How many home runs has Andrew Painter allowed this season?
Andrew Painter has allowed 30 home runs across 24 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Andrew Painter?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Andrew Painter include Alex Freeland (1), Brent Rooker (1), Brooks Lee (1) and 27 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.