2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs 1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs
Free contest · No login required

Home Run Derby Pick 'Em

presented by TheHomeRuns.org

Monday, July 13, 2026· 8:00 PM ET· Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia· Streaming on Netflix

Philly gets the stage this year — and if Kyle Schwarber makes the field, Citizens Bank Park won't need a sound system.

Picks open when the field is set

1 of 8 spots confirmed so far — MLB is expected to complete the field the week before the Derby. Drop your email and we'll tell you the moment picks open.

How it works

Three picks. Seven possible points. Free.

1
Pick the 4 semifinalists+1 point for each hitter who makes the final four.
2
Crown the champion+3 points if your champ takes the crown. Max score: 7.
3
Set the tiebreakerYour champion's TOTAL home runs across the whole Derby. Closest wins ties, then earliest entry.
Top 10 scores win Pro through the end of the 2026 MLB season. Every slate, every report, every tool — on us until the last out of the regular season.

The 2026 format is new

Not the classic bracket — Round 1 is one big pool. Know the format before you pick.

Round 1 All 8 in one pool

20 swings each — every swing counts, no clock. A homer on the final swing extends the turn. The top 4 HR totals advance.

Seeding Round 1 totals set the bracket

Semifinals are seeded by Round 1 production: 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

Semifinals 15 swings, head to head

Win your matchup, move on. Totals reset — a monster Round 1 buys seeding, not a cushion.

Final 15 swings for the crown

Last two standing. Most home runs takes the 2026 Derby at Citizens Bank Park.

Tiebreakers on the field: Round 1 ties go to the longest home run; later rounds use 3-swing swing-offs.

The field

1 confirmed · 7 reported/rumored — the full field is expected in the days before the Derby.

Straight talk: our model predicts game home runs — park, pitcher, weather, matchup. A derby is batting-practice pitching and exhibition adrenaline, which we don't model. What's below are each hitter's real 2026 power numbers from our data pipeline, not model picks. Where our data can't resolve a player, you'll see a dash instead of a made-up number.

Junior Caminero headshot
Junior Caminero
TB
Confirmed
2025 Derby runner-up
2026 HRs
24
Avg exit velo
93.6
Barrel%
13.3%
Avg HR dist
407 ft
Pull%
Kyle Schwarber headshot
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Rumored
Hometown park — Citizens Bank Park is his yard
2026 HRs
30
Avg exit velo
93.3
Barrel%
19.7%
Avg HR dist
404 ft
Pull%
Hunter Goodman headshot
Hunter Goodman
COL
Rumored
2026 HRs
27
Avg exit velo
91.5
Barrel%
17.1%
Avg HR dist
409 ft
Pull%
Ben Rice headshot
Ben Rice
NYY
Rumored
2026 HRs
23
Avg exit velo
91.7
Barrel%
14.1%
Avg HR dist
390 ft
Pull%
James Wood headshot
James Wood
WSH
Rumored
2026 HRs
22
Avg exit velo
95.1
Barrel%
23.1%
Avg HR dist
409 ft
Pull%
Byron Buxton headshot
Byron Buxton
MIN
Rumored
2026 HRs
25
Avg exit velo
90.6
Barrel%
18.5%
Avg HR dist
402 ft
Pull%
Nick Kurtz headshot
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Rumored
2026 HRs
19
Avg exit velo
94.3
Barrel%
18.7%
Avg HR dist
410 ft
Pull%
Jordan Walker headshot
Jordan Walker
STL
Rumored
2026 HRs
19
Avg exit velo
93.7
Barrel%
13.4%
Avg HR dist
407 ft
Pull%
Fair play. No purchase necessary. One entry per person; resubmitting with the same email updates your picks. Entries close at Derby start (8:00 PM ET, Monday, July 13, 2026). Scoring: +1 per correct semifinalist, +3 for the correct champion (max 7). The top 10 scores win a Pro membership through the end of the 2026 MLB regular season. Ties are broken by the closest tiebreaker (absolute difference from the champion's total Derby home runs), then by earliest entry. Winners are notified by email. Questions: tom@thehomeruns.org.
THR 3.3.54 · build 555

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.