24
HRs allowed
16.7%
HR rate (pool)
21.3%
Overall HR/FB
5.16
FIP
4.34
xFIP
+0.82
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
90
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 90th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 113.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 4 HR
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Mike Burrows.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.4%
85.3
29.2°
12
+1.6
Changeup Offspeed
26.9%
82.1
6.5°
1
-0.1
Slider Breaking
16.7%
83.4
21.3°
4
+1.1
Curveball Breaking
14.3%
80.8
6.8°
1
+0.8
Sinker Hard
13.8%
81.8
13.8°
3
+1.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups144
HRs allowed (pool)24
Pool HR rate16.7%
Pool HR/game day1.41
Top-15 matchups20
HRs to top-156
Overall HR/FB21.3% 90
HR/9—
FIP5.16 84
xFIP4.34
FIP − xFIP+0.82 85
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 28.4% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle29.2°
HRs allowed12
Pitches466
Changeup
Offspeed · 26.9% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle6.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches441
Slider
Breaking · 16.7% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle21.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches274
Curveball
Breaking · 14.3% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle6.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches234
Sinker
Hard · 13.8% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches227
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Mike Burrows.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
24 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 389 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-06
8
3
109.8
2026-06-30
9
0
109.6
2026-06-24
7
1
105.1
2026-06-13
5
1
106.2
2026-06-07
8
2
113.9
2026-06-02
9
3
111.2
2026-05-27
9
1
109.1
2026-05-20
9
2
107.2
2026-05-14
9
2
107.8
2026-05-08
9
0
108.0
2026-05-01
9
1
104.0
2026-04-25
9
3
109.3
2026-04-19
9
0
107.3
2026-04-13
8
0
109.6
2026-04-07
9
1
98.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Mike Burrows isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.