24
HRs allowed
12.9%
HR rate (pool)
22.9%
Overall HR/FB
6.46
FIP
5.23
xFIP
+1.23
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
91
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 91th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
25.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
81.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.7 EV · 403 ft
max EV allowed 114.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Merrill Kelly.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.7%
85.3
34.3°
12
+1.5
Changeup Offspeed
27.5%
80.7
-1.1°
4
+0.8
Cutter Hard
13.3%
85.9
29.2°
7
+3.0
Curveball Breaking
11.5%
83.8
1.4°
2
-0.3
Slider Breaking
10.2%
83.1
12.5°
0
+0.0
Sinker Hard
9.8%
84.9
6.8°
3
+1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups186
HRs allowed (pool)24
Pool HR rate12.9%
Pool HR/game day1.04
Top-15 matchups23
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB22.9% 91
HR/9—
FIP6.46 96
xFIP5.23
FIP − xFIP+1.23 94
Barrel% allowed25.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed81.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 27.7% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle34.3°
HRs allowed12
Pitches616
Changeup
Offspeed · 27.5% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle-1.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches612
Cutter
Hard · 13.3% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle29.2°
HRs allowed7
Pitches297
Curveball
Breaking · 11.5% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches257
Slider
Breaking · 10.2% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle12.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches227
Sinker
Hard · 9.8% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle6.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches218
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Merrill Kelly.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
24 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.7 EV · 403 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-29
7
0
110.3
2026-08-24
7
1
105.4
2026-08-18
9
2
112.7
2026-08-12
8
1
106.4
2026-08-07
7
1
108.1
2026-08-02
9
1
109.3
2026-07-27
9
0
106.4
2026-07-22
8
1
104.3
2026-07-17
7
1
114.6
2026-07-09
6
1
109.1
2026-07-04
8
2
108.6
2026-06-28
8
3
113.5
2026-06-22
8
0
107.5
2026-06-16
6
2
110.8
2026-06-11
9
0
105.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Merrill Kelly isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Merrill Kelly isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
85
13
15%
8
3
38%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Merrill Kelly
How many home runs has Merrill Kelly allowed this season?
Merrill Kelly has allowed 24 home runs across 23 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Merrill Kelly?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Merrill Kelly include Dominic Canzone (2), Jackson Chourio (2), Kyle Schwarber (2) and 43 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.