16
HRs allowed
13.9%
HR rate (pool)
22.4%
Overall HR/FB
6.79
FIP
5.47
xFIP
+1.31
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
92
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 92th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.8 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 113.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 6 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Merrill Kelly.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
26.8%
85.8
32.4°
10
+2.2
Changeup Offspeed
25.8%
81.0
-2.3°
2
+0.3
Cutter Hard
15.0%
86.0
29.1°
5
+3.6
Curveball Breaking
11.4%
83.7
-0.1°
2
-0.3
Slider Breaking
11.1%
81.9
10.3°
0
-0.3
Sinker Hard
9.8%
86.3
5.1°
3
+3.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups115
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate13.9%
Pool HR/game day1.14
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB22.4% 92
HR/9—
FIP6.79 98
xFIP5.47
FIP − xFIP+1.31 95
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 26.8% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle32.4°
HRs allowed10
Pitches410
Changeup
Offspeed · 25.8% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle-2.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches395
Cutter
Hard · 15.0% usage
+3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle29.1°
HRs allowed5
Pitches230
Curveball
Breaking · 11.4% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle-0.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches175
Slider
Breaking · 11.1% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches169
Sinker
Hard · 9.8% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle5.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches150
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Merrill Kelly.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.8 EV · 401 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
6
1
109.1
2026-07-04
8
2
108.6
2026-06-28
8
3
113.5
2026-06-22
8
0
107.5
2026-06-16
6
2
110.8
2026-06-11
9
0
105.6
2026-06-05
7
3
113.7
2026-05-31
9
2
106.8
2026-05-25
9
0
110.1
2026-05-20
9
1
113.4
2026-05-15
9
1
111.4
2026-05-09
9
0
107.4
2026-05-03
9
1
110.9
2026-04-21
9
0
79.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Merrill Kelly isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.