⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
Ryan Johnson
Ryan Johnson RHP LAA
18 matchups scored · 2 game days
2 HRs Allowed
11.1% HR Rate (Pool)
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
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HR/9 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. >1.5 elite-bad (homer-friendly), 1.2–1.5 above avg, <0.9 elite-good (HR-resistant).
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HR/FB ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. >15% elite homer-prone, 12–15% above avg, <8% homer-resistant. League avg ~12%.
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Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
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Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
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FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
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FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
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xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
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FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
11.1%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
18
Pool Matchups
2
HRs Allowed (Pool)
8
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
11.1%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 18 2 2 11.1% 1.0 97.4mph 102.8mph 35.0° 386ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 15 18 2 2 11.1% 1.0 97.4mph 102.8mph 35.0° 386ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 30 18 2 2 11.1% 1.0 97.4mph 102.8mph 35.0° 386ft Flat +0.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
16 tracked BBE from 18 pool matchups
97.4
111.3
12
0
102.8
35.0°
386
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-04-05 Julio Rodriguez 111.3mph · · · ·
2026-04-05 Jorge Polanco 108.7mph · · · ·
2026-04-05 Cole Young 104.0mph 104.0mph 28° 394ft Yes
2026-04-05 Randy Arozarena 100.6mph · · · ·
2026-03-30 Dansby Swanson 107.5mph · · · ·
2026-03-30 Ian Happ 103.2mph 101.6mph 42° 378ft Yes
2026-03-30 Carson Kelly 101.6mph · · · ·
2026-03-30 Pete Crow-Armstrong 101.4mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
2 days · 2 total HRs
HRs Allowed
2 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-04-05 Cole Young #111 32 Angel Stadium 104.0mph 28.0° 394.0ft
2026-03-30 Ian Happ #25 42 Wrigley Field 101.6mph 42.0° 378.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Cutter 74 34.6% +4.1 80.2 29.5° 2
Splitter 54 25.2% +2.2 83.1 9.3° 0
Sinker 51 23.8% +6.6 89.7 18.4° 1
Sweeper 35 16.4% +5.9 82.7 15.2° 0
All Scored Matchups
18 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-04-05 Ben Williamson #221 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Cole Young #111 32 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-04-05 J.P. Crawford #48 33 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-05 Mitch Garver #24 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-05 Jorge Polanco #11 51 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Randy Arozarena #8 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Dominic Canzone #6 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Julio Rodriguez #5 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Cal Raleigh #2 64 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Nico Hoerner #177 25 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Matt Shaw #49 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Kyle Tucker #36 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Ian Happ #25 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-03-30 Carson Kelly #23 41 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-30 Pete Crow-Armstrong #18 49 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-30 Dansby Swanson #9 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Seiya Suzuki #8 51 🟠 C · — ·
2026-03-30 Michael Busch #3 55 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
LD 3.2.88

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