21
HRs allowed
13.6%
HR rate (pool)
20.7%
Overall HR/FB
6.15
FIP
5.13
xFIP
+1.02
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 112.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Johnson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
38.6%
80.8
28.5°
6
-0.9
Sweeper Breaking
23.5%
80.4
23.7°
5
+0.8
Splitter Offspeed
20.4%
79.8
9.0°
0
+0.0
Sinker Hard
17.1%
86.1
18.4°
7
+4.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups154
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate13.6%
Pool HR/game day1.11
Top-15 matchups17
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB20.7% 87
HR/9—
FIP6.15 95
xFIP5.13
FIP − xFIP+1.02 91
Barrel% allowed21.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Cutter
Hard · 38.6% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle28.5°
HRs allowed6
Pitches682
Sweeper
Breaking · 23.5% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches415
Splitter
Offspeed · 20.4% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches361
Sinker
Hard · 17.1% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle18.4°
HRs allowed7
Pitches302
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Johnson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 402 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-26
7
1
106.9
2026-09-20
7
1
103.7
2026-09-15
7
0
111.4
2026-09-09
9
2
108.6
2026-09-04
7
0
108.1
2026-08-29
8
0
104.0
2026-08-22
9
0
105.0
2026-08-16
9
2
105.3
2026-08-11
7
1
105.5
2026-08-06
9
1
104.1
2026-07-31
8
2
111.3
2026-07-25
9
2
112.5
2026-07-19
9
2
105.6
2026-07-11
8
1
107.7
2026-07-05
7
2
112.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryan Johnson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Ryan Johnson isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
79
11
14%
15
3
20%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 9. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Ryan Johnson
How many home runs has Ryan Johnson allowed this season?
Ryan Johnson has allowed 21 home runs across 19 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Ryan Johnson?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Ryan Johnson include Cole Young (2), Alan Roden (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1) and 17 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.