7
HRs allowed
14.3%
HR rate (pool)
20.2%
Overall HR/FB
5.95
FIP
5.0
xFIP
+0.95
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
80.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.3 EV · 413 ft
max EV allowed 112.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Johnson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
29.9%
79.2
30.1°
2
+0.2
Sinker Hard
29.4%
86.4
15.3°
6
+4.7
Splitter Offspeed
26.9%
80.1
5.8°
0
-0.9
Sweeper Breaking
13.8%
81.7
24.7°
1
+2.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups49
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate14.3%
Pool HR/game day1.17
Top-15 matchups10
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB20.2% 89
HR/9—
FIP5.95 92
xFIP5.0
FIP − xFIP+0.95 88
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed80.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Cutter
Hard · 29.9% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.2 mph
Avg launch angle30.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches190
Sinker
Hard · 29.4% usage
+4.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.4 mph
Avg launch angle15.3°
HRs allowed6
Pitches187
Splitter
Offspeed · 26.9% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle5.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches171
Sweeper
Breaking · 13.8% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle24.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches88
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Johnson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.3 EV · 413 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 6 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
1
107.7
2026-07-05
7
2
112.2
2026-06-29
8
2
108.4
2026-06-23
8
0
106.0
2026-04-05
9
1
111.3
2026-03-30
9
1
107.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryan Johnson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.