Jul 10
Above Avg
Caught 13 of 37 HRs
James Wood · slate rank #1 that night
13 of the night's 37 homers came off the board's top 50 (35.1%). 4 of them were top-10 picks.
All-Star Break · First Half Review
First Half, In The Books.
Every pick graded in public since Opening Day. Here’s the ledger.
Days tracked
108
Mar 26 – Jul 12
HRs tracked
2,508
every one graded next morning
Top-15 catch rate
17.3%
share of our top-15 picks who homered
Field average
10.6%
×1.6 LIFT
all graded matchups, same nights
The report card
Tier by tier, no cherry-picking
Hit rate = picks in that tier who homered that night. All 23,645 graded picks included.
Elite
0
0.0%
0/4
Premium
6
16.7%
6/36
Excellent
46
19.8%
46/232
Above Avg
150
19.8%
150/757
Value
308
16.7%
308/1,845
Below Avg
485
13.6%
485/3,576
Below
1513
8.8%
1513/17,195
Best single day: Jul 10 — 13 of 37 (35.1%)
tick on each track = 10.6% field average
The trend
Daily catch rate, all half
One line, one dashed baseline. That gap is the product.
Half avg 23.9%
×2.3 vs field
Top-15 daily catch rate
Field average (10.6%)
Single days swing hard on small samples. The half-season average is the signal.
Best calls of the half
Three nights we’ll brag about
Highlights, labeled as highlights. The ledger above is the whole truth.
Jul 9
Value
Caught 12 of 34 HRs
Ben Rice · slate rank #3 that night
12 of the night's 34 homers came off the board's top 50 (35.3%). 4 of them were top-10 picks.
Jul 1
Above Avg
Caught 10 of 35 HRs
Hunter Goodman · slate rank #4 that night
10 of the night's 35 homers came off the board's top 50 (28.6%). 2 of them were top-10 picks.
The long balls
Every first-half homer, sliced
3,525 tracked, through Jul 15. Distance, exit velo, parks — and the ones the board saw coming.
#
Batter
Distance
Park
Date
1
Drake Baldwin
473 ft
Jun 16
2
Nick Kurtz
471 ft
Jun 12
3
Shea Langeliers
467 ft
Apr 15
4
William Contreras
463 ft
Jun 8
5
Lawrence Butler
463 ft
Jun 10
#
Batter
Exit velo
EV percentile
Date
1
Shea Langeliers
117.3 mph
Mar 20
2
Oneil Cruz
116.9 mph
Apr 22
3
Jordan Walker
116.6 mph
Jun 13
4
Aaron Judge
116.2 mph
Apr 13
5
Yordan Alvarez
116.2 mph
Apr 18
#
Park
HRs
Park factor
1
Sutter Health Park
171
2
Nationals Park
165
3
Wrigley Field
148
4
Great American Ball Park
146
5
Daikin Park
141
#
Batter
Distance
Slate that night
Date
1
Rafael Devers
463 ft
Jul 5
2
Nick Kurtz
457 ft
Jul 3
3
Yordan Alvarez
455 ft
Jul 10
4
Carter Jensen
449 ft
Jul 2
5
Willson Contreras
446 ft
Jul 5
“—” = not resolvable from the pipeline for that ball. We show the gap, not a guess.
Overdue after the break
The second half opens with debts
Cadence says these bats owe one. The batted-ball data agrees.
Due for one
dueness index
Nico Hoerner
73
games since last
Jacob Young
26
games since last
Brandon Valenzuela
16
games since last
Unlucky barrels
crushing it, no payoff
Jac Caglianone
+33
barrel–HR gap
Junior Caminero
+30
barrel–HR gap
William Contreras
+30
barrel–HR gap
The board comes back Thursday.
Derby Pick ’Em
Results are in.
See results
The second half
The slate returns Jul 16.
Every batter, graded nightly. In your inbox every morning, free.
You’re in. First slate lands Thursday morning.
That didn’t go through — check the address and try again.
TheHomeRuns.org — every pick graded in public since Opening Day.