TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.98×

BOS @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 5 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:40p

+3 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+4 ↑

4:40p

+4 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Juan Soto conv 29 · vs Tolle ⟷ Caleb Durbin conv 19 · vs Thornton → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 92

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge +750 D ●●○○○

3 Luis Torrens +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Zach Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 80

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Caleb Durbin +625 D ●●●○○

2 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Tolle +370 0.272 · 92.8 · 10.1% 30.8% 27.0% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Thornton Edge +625 0.161 · 84.8 · 5.6% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 40

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Tolle +750 0.138 · 89.5 · 7.4% 15.4% 10.2% F B O D 40

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Tolle Edge +850 0.099 · 87.7 · 5.2% 14.3% 7.1% F B O D 33

· BOS Masataka Yoshida COOL vs Thornton — 0.114 · 88.4 · 4.5% 14.3% 6.9% F B O D 34

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Thornton +525 0.154 · 89.6 · 10.7% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 46

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Tolle +700 0.165 · — · 7.4% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 37

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Thornton +425 0.172 · 89.9 · 10.7% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 47

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Thornton Edge +500 0.162 · 86.2 · 7.2% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 40

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Tolle +850 0.093 · 89.4 · 7.4% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 34

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Tolle Edge +350 0.162 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Tolle Edge — 0.122 · 90.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Thornton Edge — 0.076 · 91.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 4.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 81.0% ← leak BRK 16.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L

11.8% 13.0% 11.6% D 47 +425

Jarren Duran L

14.7% 6.2% 11.4% D 46 +525

137

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.1% 1.7% 2.8% D 40 +625

141

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

3.8% 5.4% 5.2% D 40 +500

182

Masataka Yoshida L

2.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 34 —

184

Carlos Narvaez R Edge

8.1% 6.1% 6.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (81.0% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 88.7% ← leak BRK 8.0% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L

18.6% 11.9% 5.4% 14.6% C+ 61 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

136

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

15.4% 14.3% 17.6% 15.2% D 40 +350

138

Carson Benge L

7.4% 8.7% 7.3% 7.7% D 40 +750

156

A.J. Ewing L

10.7% 8.1% 0.0% 8.0% D 37 +700

164

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.9% 12.5% 0.0% 6.9% D 36 —

180

Brett Baty L

8.9% 14.0% 2.7% 8.8% D 34 +850

188

Luis Torrens R Edge

4.3% 5.1% 0.0% 3.9% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (88.7% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Durbin Soto

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +370 · 61

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 5 mph in 70°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

2:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:40p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:40p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

79°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Zach Thornton · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 47 D +425 WARM 81 0.172 89.9 10.7% 8.7%vs LHP 402 12.4% 8.3% 9.7% 28

2 Jarren Duran 46 D +525 WARM 90 0.154 89.6 10.7% 7.7%vs LHP 398 14.0% 11.1% 9.6% 18

3 Caleb Durbin 40 D +625 · 137 0.161 84.8 5.6% 17.6%vs LHP 373 9.4% 25.0% 12.8% 36

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D +500 COOL 141 0.162 86.2 7.2% 14.3%vs LHP 372 9.1% 8.3% 7.3% 40

5 Masataka Yoshida 34 D — COOL 182 0.114 88.4 4.5% 4.7% 390 8.3% 14.3% 6.9% 17

6 Carlos Narvaez 33 D — COOL 184 0.076 91.4 8.4% 0.0%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 13

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 61 C+ +370 COOL 15 0.272 92.8 10.1% 13.8%vs LHP 401 21.2% 30.8% 27.0% 32

2 Francisco Alvarez 40 D +350 COOL 136 0.162 90.1 10.4% 25.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 26

3 Carson Benge 40 D +750 COOL 138 0.138 89.5 7.4% 23.1%vs LHP 399 9.9% 15.4% 10.2% 40

4 A.J. Ewing 37 D +700 WARM 156 0.165 — 7.4% 20.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 33

5 Bo Bichette 36 D — · 164 0.122 90.3 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 385 9.8% 0.0% 7.6% 40

6 Brett Baty 34 D +850 HOT 180 0.093 89.4 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 415 4.5% 7.7% 6.7% 35

7 Luis Torrens 33 D +850 WARM 188 0.099 87.7 5.2% 14.3%vs LHP 394 5.9% 14.3% 7.1% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.