2
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
7.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.91
FIP
4.21
xFIP
-0.30
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
11
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 11th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 99.9 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 107.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zach Thornton.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
43.8%
83.0
3.1°
1
-0.6
Fastball Hard
29.6%
84.5
31.8°
0
-2.3
Sweeper Breaking
14.6%
82.2
20.5°
0
-2.0
Sinker Hard
9.2%
82.9
34.2°
0
-2.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB7.9% 11
HR/9—
FIP3.91 44
xFIP4.21
FIP − xFIP-0.30 29
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 43.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle3.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches105
Fastball
Hard · 29.6% usage
-2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches71
Sweeper
Breaking · 14.6% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle20.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches35
Sinker
Hard · 9.2% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle34.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches22
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zach Thornton.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 99.9 EV · 391 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
9
0
101.3
2026-05-20
9
2
107.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zach Thornton isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.