TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.19×

LAA @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:10p

+4 ↑

2:10p

+4 ↑

3:10p

+4 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 33 · vs Soriano ⟷ Mike Trout conv 26 · vs Bradley → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 96

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell — C ●●●●○

3 Royce Lewis — C ●●●○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 57

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout — C+ ●●●●○

2 Zach Neto — C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Soriano Edge — 0.251 · 92.6 · 10.4% 33.3% 32.3% F B O C+ 64

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Bradley — 0.235 · 91.0 · 14.0% 25.0% 27.3% F B O C+ 61

· MIN Josh Bell HOT vs Soriano Edge — 0.178 · 89.9 · 9.5% 27.3% 23.2% F B O C 51

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Soriano — 0.162 · 89.1 · 10.6% 25.0% 15.5% F B O C 50

· LAA Zach Neto vs Bradley — 0.222 · 89.5 · 11.2% 16.7% 16.4% F B O C 56

· MIN Ryan Jeffers vs Soriano — 0.246 · 91.5 · 11.4% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Bradley Edge — 0.139 · 88.7 · 8.9% 18.2% 14.0% F B O D 43

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Soriano — 0.100 · 84.5 · 5.1% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 33

· MIN Ryan Kreidler COOL vs Soriano — 0.177 · 87.3 · 8.3% 12.5% 10.8% F B O D 43

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Soriano Edge — 0.158 · 87.4 · 7.7% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 41

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Bradley — 0.149 · 89.7 · 9.0% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 43

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Bradley — 0.194 · 88.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 49

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.184 · 88.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 43

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.120 · 87.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe vs Bradley — 0.100 · 87.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 38

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Bradley — 0.136 · 87.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· LAA Denzer Guzman COOL vs Bradley — 0.130 · 87.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 71.4% ← leak OFF 19.5% BRK 9.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R

19.1% 10.5% 29.4% 20.1% C+ 61 —

Zach Neto R

16.9% 3.7% 9.3% 13.0% C 56 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

15.7% 0.0% 10.9% 12.7% D 49 —

121

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.1% 4.3% 2.6% 7.8% D 43 —

128

Jo Adell R

8.9% 6.1% 7.1% 8.0% D 43 —

158

Oswald Peraza R

6.6% 12.5% 7.8% 7.7% D 39 —

160

Denzer Guzman R

7.7% 11.1% 3.7% 6.7% D 39 —

171

Logan O'Hoppe R

11.4% 14.3% 9.1% 10.8% D 38 —

201

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 2.1% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.4% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.8% ← leak BRK 30.6% OFF 19.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.1% 19.6% 12.5% 12.8% C+ 64 —

Ryan Jeffers R

18.1% 12.9% 8.3% 15.7% C 54 —

Josh Bell S Edge

10.4% 15.0% 6.3% 10.5% C 51 —

Royce Lewis R

14.9% 12.2% 9.1% 13.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

123

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.4% 1.2% 1.4% 4.1% D 43 —

125

Ryan Kreidler R

9.7% 3.1% 11.1% 7.8% D 43 —

141

Trevor Larnach L Edge

9.0% 6.7% 3.3% 7.7% D 41 —

199

Luke Keaschall R

3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 3.4% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.8% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Neto Lowe Clemens Bell Lewis Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens — · 64

Mike Trout — · 61

Josh Bell — · 51

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 88°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

1:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

2:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

3:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

4:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 88°F, wind 6 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 61 C+ — COOL 15 0.235 91.0 14.0% 28.0%vs RHP 409 18.9% 25.0% 27.3% 10

2 Zach Neto 56 C — · 33 0.222 89.5 11.2% 21.2%vs RHP 402 19.1% 16.7% 16.4% 35

3 Jorge Soler 49 D — · 65 0.194 88.3 10.7% 34.4%vs RHP 398 13.9% 0.0% 14.2% 26

4 Josh Lowe 43 D — WARM 121 0.139 88.7 8.9% 17.1%vs RHP 395 10.7% 18.2% 14.0% 26

5 Jo Adell 43 D — COOL 128 0.149 89.7 9.0% 10.4%vs RHP 409 11.2% 8.3% 9.0% 37

6 Oswald Peraza 39 D — COOL 158 0.136 87.3 8.6% 10.0%vs RHP 386 7.4% 0.0% 7.5% 15

7 Denzer Guzman 39 D — COOL 160 0.130 87.0 8.0% 7.1%vs RHP 408 11.1% 0.0% 6.9% 26

8 Logan O'Hoppe 38 D — WARM 171 0.100 87.2 10.3% 13.3%vs RHP 408 3.9% 0.0% 7.6% 20

9 Nolan Schanuel 33 D — COOL 201 0.120 87.2 4.5% 11.8%vs RHP 372 7.8% 0.0% 7.9% 33

vs José Soriano · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 64 C+ — · 12 0.251 92.6 10.4% 22.9%vs RHP 390 19.2% 33.3% 32.3% 36

2 Ryan Jeffers 54 C — WARM 43 0.246 91.5 11.4% 28.0%vs RHP 402 16.7% 0.0% 19.2% 4

3 Josh Bell 51 C — HOT 54 0.178 89.9 9.5% 21.7%vs RHP 404 11.4% 27.3% 23.2% 36

4 Royce Lewis 50 C — · 58 0.162 89.1 10.6% 18.9%vs RHP 396 18.5% 25.0% 15.5% 33

5 Brooks Lee 43 D — COOL 123 0.184 88.1 5.8% 19.6%vs RHP 367 15.1% 0.0% 13.9% 36

6 Ryan Kreidler 43 D — COOL 125 0.177 87.3 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP 411 7.4% 12.5% 10.8% 25

7 Trevor Larnach 41 D — WARM 141 0.158 87.4 7.7% 10.9%vs RHP 398 6.5% 9.1% 10.5% 31

8 Luke Keaschall 33 D — COOL 199 0.100 84.5 5.1% 8.2%vs RHP 370 5.0% 18.2% 8.9% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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