TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.94×

PHI @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

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the 1:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 36 · vs Skubal ⟷ Colt Keith conv 26 · vs Wheeler → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 100

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Marsh +950 D ●●●○○

3 Trea Turner +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith +625 D ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +500 C ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +370 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Skubal +305 0.315 · 93.5 · 12.4% 23.1% 49.1% F B O C+ 66

· DET Spencer Torkelson HOT vs Wheeler +500 0.202 · 90.1 · 9.3% 27.3% 23.8% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Skubal +575 0.238 · 90.2 · 9.6% 7.7% 19.5% F B O C 51

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Wheeler +625 0.275 · 90.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Wheeler Edge +625 0.148 · 88.8 · 6.9% 37.5% 14.8% F B O D 39

· DET Riley Greene vs Wheeler Edge +370 0.181 · 91.5 · 9.1% 27.3% 19.1% F B O D 46

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Skubal +950 0.188 · 89.9 · 8.6% 16.7% 28.3% F B O D 47

· PHI Trea Turner vs Skubal Edge +750 0.118 · 88.6 · 7.0% 25.0% 9.8% F B O D 36

· DET Kerry Carpenter vs Wheeler Edge +425 0.229 · 90.6 · 8.3% 11.1% 15.8% F B O D 47

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Skubal Edge +850 0.141 · 90.0 · 6.2% 15.4% 9.0% F B O D 36

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Skubal — 0.143 · 89.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Skubal Edge +850 0.132 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 30

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Skubal — 0.095 · 86.8 · 2.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 25

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Wheeler Edge +500 0.136 · 88.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 33

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Wheeler Edge — 0.100 · 84.4 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 25

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Wheeler — 0.133 · 87.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.9% ← leak OFF 25.2% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L

19.7% 28.0% 17.2% 19.9% C+ 66 +305

Bryce Harper L

9.2% 9.3% 16.7% 11.7% C 51 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L

8.6% 2.8% 15.3% 9.7% D 47 +950

165

Bryson Stott L

7.6% 6.2% 5.6% 6.8% D 36 —

166

Trea Turner R Edge

8.5% 0.0% 4.3% 6.4% D 36 +750

167

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.9% 6.7% 5.6% 5.2% D 36 +850

202

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

5.0% 8.3% 4.5% 5.1% D 30 +850

221

Justin Crawford L

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.0% ← leak BRK 22.8% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

13.1% 12.1% 6.2% 12.0% C 52 +625

Spencer Torkelson R

16.9% 9.3% 21.1% 15.3% C 50 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.7% 11.4% 8.7% 10.6% D 47 +425

Riley Greene L Edge

16.3% 14.5% 6.4% 14.0% D 46 +370

149

Colt Keith L Edge

7.8% 18.8% 4.7% 8.8% D 39 +625

186

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.5% 8.5% 2.1% 8.1% D 33 +500

196

Matt Vierling R

7.5% 2.9% 0.0% 5.0% D 32 —

217

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 2.8% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.0% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Torkelson Carpenter Greene Keith

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Schwarber +305 · 66

Spencer Torkelson +500 · 50

Riley Greene +370 · 46

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 64°F open

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9 mph · in

79°F

1:40p · peak

-9

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10 mph · in

80°F

2:40p

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81°F

3:40p

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4:40p

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9 mph · in

82°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 65°F, wind 4 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ +305 · 6 0.315 93.5 12.4% 46.2%vs LHP 404 26.1% 23.1% 49.1% 25

2 Bryce Harper 51 C +575 COOL 60 0.238 90.2 9.6% 10.7%vs LHP 400 19.8% 7.7% 19.5% 27

3 Brandon Marsh 47 D +950 WARM 83 0.188 89.9 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 392 13.8% 16.7% 28.3% 31

4 Bryson Stott 36 D — · 165 0.143 89.2 7.4% 10.0%vs LHP 393 8.1% 0.0% 11.6% 37

5 Trea Turner 36 D +750 · 166 0.118 88.6 7.0% 3.3%vs LHP 393 11.2% 25.0% 9.8% 40

6 Alec Bohm 36 D +850 HOT 167 0.141 90.0 6.2% 13.8%vs LHP 394 11.4% 15.4% 9.0% 37

7 J.T. Realmuto 30 D +850 · 202 0.132 — 6.3% 5.3%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 19

8 Justin Crawford 25 D — COOL 221 0.095 86.8 2.8% 4.7% 382 3.0% 0.0% 9.7% 32

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 52 C +625 COOL 56 0.275 90.0 8.5% 28.3%vs RHP 397 19.5% 0.0% 18.1% 31

2 Spencer Torkelson 50 C +500 HOT 65 0.202 90.1 9.3% 22.8%vs RHP 391 16.3% 27.3% 23.8% 26

3 Kerry Carpenter 47 D +425 WARM 84 0.229 90.6 8.3% 25.5%vs RHP 380 16.7% 11.1% 15.8% 21

4 Riley Greene 46 D +370 WARM 93 0.181 91.5 9.1% 17.2%vs RHP 399 11.8% 27.3% 19.1% 27

5 Colt Keith 39 D +625 WARM 149 0.148 88.8 6.9% 13.5%vs RHP 385 7.8% 37.5% 14.8% 20

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 33 D +500 · 186 0.136 88.1 6.9% 6.5%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 35

7 Matt Vierling 32 D — COOL 196 0.133 87.5 5.6% 8.8%vs RHP 377 8.0% 0.0% 7.7% 26

8 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — WARM 217 0.100 84.4 3.8% 8.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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