TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.83×

ATL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 5 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:15p

+4 ↑

2:15p

+5 ↑

3:15p

+6 ↑

4:15p

+5 ↑

5:15p

conditions build late — the 4:15p window peaks +6

Best of game Matt Olson conv 24 · vs May ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 31 · vs Ritchie → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 72

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +390 C ●●●●○

2 Ozzie Albies +575 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +500 D ●○○○○

FADE JR Ritchie RHP · ATL

leak 13

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nathan Church +850 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Ritchie +400 0.246 · 94.3 · 10.7% 38.5% 23.5% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson vs May Edge +390 0.284 · 92.9 · 9.8% 23.1% 25.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· STL Nathan Church vs Ritchie Edge +850 0.151 · 85.9 · 8.1% 25.0% 16.0% F B O D 42

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Ritchie Edge +425 0.195 · 91.6 · 9.3% 16.7% 14.7% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs May Edge +575 0.170 · 87.1 · 5.2% 15.4% 9.3% F B O D 34

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs May Edge +500 0.188 · 91.4 · 10.1% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 43

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Ritchie — 0.130 · 85.0 · 4.3% 10.0% 5.9% F B O D 32

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs May +525 0.144 · 90.2 · 8.3% 7.7% 6.5% F B O D 34

· STL Masyn Winn vs Ritchie — 0.089 · 87.8 · 5.0% 7.7% 5.8% F B O D 29

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Ritchie Edge +525 0.140 · 90.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Ritchie +700 0.151 · 89.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs May Edge +850 0.122 · 87.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs May — 0.146 · 86.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.6% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 7.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.4% 10.0% 12.5% 14.7% C 56 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

119

Drake Baldwin L Edge

16.3% 22.0% 0.0% 15.3% D 43 +500

175

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.1% 1.1% 3.4% 4.0% D 34 +575

181

Austin Riley R

12.6% 12.5% 3.4% 11.4% D 34 +525

208

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.5% 6.5% 2.9% 5.9% D 29 +850

212

Mauricio Dubon R

3.8% 6.0% 4.1% 4.5% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.6% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.3% ← leak BRK 35.0% OFF 17.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

15.2% 14.0% 16.1% 14.9% C+ 60 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

10.8% 12.1% 9.5% 10.9% D 49 +425

122

Nathan Church L Edge

9.8% 6.5% 7.1% 8.1% D 42 +850

161

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.4% 4.1% 2.6% 8.3% D 36 +525

171

Ivan Herrera R

5.9% 6.7% 8.8% 6.5% D 34 +700

194

José Fermín R

2.4% 2.9% 0.0% 2.1% D 32 —

209

Masyn Winn R

3.6% 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.3% usage) carries Ritchie's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Walker Burleson Church

Legend

attack side — vs May fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker +400 · 60

Matt Olson +390 · 56

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 5 mph slight_out 71°F open

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

1:15p

↑

10 mph · out

81°F

2:15p

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

3:15p

↑

11 mph · out

84°F

4:15p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 71°F, wind 5 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 56 C +390 WARM 31 0.284 92.9 9.8% 32.7%vs RHP 408 21.3% 23.1% 25.8% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 43 D +500 COOL 119 0.188 91.4 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 406 17.8% 7.7% 10.8% 39

3 Ozzie Albies 34 D +575 WARM 175 0.170 87.1 5.2% 13.1%vs RHP 383 12.8% 15.4% 9.3% 37

4 Austin Riley 34 D +525 COOL 181 0.144 90.2 8.3% 14.0%vs RHP 404 7.5% 7.7% 6.5% 28

5 Dominic Smith 29 D +850 COOL 208 0.122 87.7 6.4% 13.6%vs RHP 390 6.9% 0.0% 6.6% 24

6 Mauricio Dubon 27 D — COOL 212 0.146 86.3 5.5% 12.8%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 40

vs JR Ritchie · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 60 C+ +400 WARM 19 0.246 94.3 10.7% 34.7%vs RHP 406 20.7% 38.5% 23.5% 31

2 Alec Burleson 49 D +425 COOL 72 0.195 91.6 9.3% 22.4%vs RHP 407 16.9% 16.7% 14.7% 34

3 Nathan Church 42 D +850 · 122 0.151 85.9 8.1% 21.4%vs RHP 388 9.8% 25.0% 16.0% 33

4 Jj Wetherholt 36 D +525 · 161 0.140 90.0 7.5% 17.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 38

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +700 COOL 171 0.151 89.3 6.9% 20.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 37

6 José Fermín 32 D — COOL 194 0.130 85.0 4.3% 13.3%vs RHP 384 6.5% 10.0% 5.9% 30

7 Masyn Winn 29 D — · 209 0.089 87.8 5.0% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.5% 7.7% 5.8% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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