TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.64×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 8 mph in 57°F Roof open

Hourly window

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the 2:05p window peaks +0

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 28 · vs Lorenzen ⟷ Kyle Karros conv 20 · vs McDonald → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 93

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +305 C ●●●●○

2 Heliot Ramos +525 C ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +575 C ●●●○○

FADE Trevor McDonald RHP · SF

leak 3

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Karros — D ●●●○○

2 Hunter Goodman +425 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Lorenzen Edge +305 0.232 · 91.9 · 10.1% 30.8% 24.4% F B O C 55

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Lorenzen +525 0.200 · 92.2 · 11.7% 23.1% 17.1% F B O C 50

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Lorenzen Edge +575 0.198 · 92.3 · 10.7% 22.2% 16.8% F B O C 50

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Lorenzen +425 0.212 · 89.8 · 10.4% 25.0% 12.0% F B O C 51

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs McDonald +425 0.290 · 91.1 · 8.3% 15.4% 19.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Kyle Karros vs McDonald — 0.172 · 89.7 · 6.0% 28.6% 12.0% F B O D 40

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs McDonald +850 0.145 · 87.2 · 5.4% 15.4% 5.7% F B O D 33

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs McDonald Edge +950 0.110 · 91.5 · 5.4% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 31

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Lorenzen +400 0.197 · 88.4 · 8.9% 7.7% 11.3% F B O D 45

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +950 0.137 · 85.3 · 4.3% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 32

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.113 · 88.2 · 5.1% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 30

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs McDonald Edge +950 0.203 · 85.1 · 4.9% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 37

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs McDonald Edge +750 0.184 · 84.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 34

· COL Troy Johnston vs McDonald Edge +950 0.139 · 89.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 27

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Lorenzen Edge — 0.137 · 87.1 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· SF Luis Arraez vs Lorenzen Edge +950 0.130 · 87.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· COL Tyler Freeman vs McDonald — 0.079 · 87.9 · 2.1% 0.0% 4.1% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.0% BRK 26.4% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.8% 17.3% 8.0% 16.5% C 54 +425

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

143

Kyle Karros R

7.8% 5.4% 15.8% 7.9% D 40 —

159

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.9% 1.8% 12.5% 5.6% D 37 +950

183

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.5% 2.4% 6.2% 5.3% D 34 +750

190

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.9% 9.4% 4.5% 8.1% D 33 +850

200

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.8% 11.8% 6.7% 7.3% D 31 +950

206

Willi Castro S Edge

5.6% 5.8% 7.1% 5.9% D 30 —

213

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.9% 4.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 +950

225

Tyler Freeman R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McDonald's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 28.9% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.4% 9.0% 10.0% 12.1% C 55 +305

Casey Schmitt R

9.4% 16.5% 18.2% 12.1% C 51 +425

Heliot Ramos R

15.0% 16.4% 14.3% 15.4% C 50 +525

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

14.1% 6.9% 19.0% 13.3% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

104

Willy Adames R

8.1% 9.5% 15.0% 9.0% D 45 +400

195

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% D 32 +950

201

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 31 —

218

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Devers Schmitt Ramos Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Lorenzen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +305 · 55

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 8 mph in 57°F open

-1

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7 mph · out

69°F

1:05p

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8 mph · out

73°F

2:05p · peak

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8 mph · out

74°F

3:05p

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9 mph · slight_out

75°F

4:05p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

77°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.64× 57°F, wind 8 mph N (in) — modifier: -2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor McDonald · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 54 C +425 COOL 51 0.290 91.1 8.3% 40.4%vs RHP 409 25.0% 15.4% 19.8% 24

2 Kyle Karros 40 D — WARM 143 0.172 89.7 6.0% 24.1%vs RHP 414 12.2% 28.6% 12.0% 34

3 Jake Mccarthy 37 D +950 COOL 159 0.203 85.1 4.9% 17.1%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 17.8% 41

4 Tj Rumfield 34 D +750 COOL 183 0.184 84.0 4.8% 19.4%vs RHP 406 7.1% 0.0% 11.2% 38

5 Ezequiel Tovar 33 D +850 COOL 190 0.145 87.2 5.4% 16.7%vs RHP 410 8.1% 15.4% 5.7% 39

6 Edouard Julien 31 D +950 COOL 200 0.110 91.5 5.4% 13.8%vs RHP 400 3.9% 10.0% 10.0% 15

7 Willi Castro 30 D — COOL 206 0.113 88.2 5.1% 10.4%vs RHP 419 7.0% 10.0% 7.9% 18

8 Troy Johnston 27 D +950 WARM 213 0.139 89.5 3.1% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 7.2% 19

9 Tyler Freeman 22 D — WARM 225 0.079 87.9 2.1% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.4% 0.0% 4.1% 30

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 55 C +305 WARM 41 0.232 91.9 10.1% 25.9%vs RHP 408 17.3% 30.8% 24.4% 37

2 Casey Schmitt 51 C +425 WARM 61 0.212 89.8 10.4% 21.7%vs RHP 395 17.8% 25.0% 12.0% 37

3 Heliot Ramos 50 C +525 WARM 66 0.200 92.2 11.7% 20.0%vs RHP 404 12.1% 23.1% 17.1% 36

4 Bryce Eldridge 50 C +575 · 67 0.198 92.3 10.7% 20.7%vs RHP 398 20.7% 22.2% 16.8% 28

5 Willy Adames 45 D +400 COOL 104 0.197 88.4 8.9% 20.7%vs RHP 390 14.3% 7.7% 11.3% 18

6 Drew Gilbert 32 D +950 COOL 195 0.137 85.3 4.3% 16.7%vs RHP 398 4.1% 10.0% 8.6% 18

7 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — COOL 201 0.137 87.1 4.6% 8.9%vs RHP 378 4.7% 0.0% 6.8% 39

8 Luis Arraez 25 D +950 WARM 218 0.130 87.0 2.3% 3.6%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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