14
HRs allowed
8.3%
HR rate (pool)
21.9%
Overall HR/FB
5.07
FIP
4.33
xFIP
+0.74
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
91
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 91th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 412 ft
max EV allowed 114.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Michael Lorenzen.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
19.5%
80.8
13.2°
3
+2.3
Fastball Hard
19.2%
87.3
25.1°
5
+2.2
Sinker Hard
18.5%
86.5
5.7°
1
+1.8
Cutter Hard
14.6%
84.2
13.3°
2
+0.3
Curveball Breaking
12.1%
83.3
-2.0°
3
+0.8
Slider Breaking
8.4%
83.8
10.3°
1
+0.8
Sweeper Breaking
7.7%
81.7
9.0°
1
+1.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups168
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate8.3%
Pool HR/game day0.74
Top-15 matchups18
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB21.9% 91
HR/9—
FIP5.07 82
xFIP4.33
FIP − xFIP+0.74 82
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.5% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle13.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches357
Fastball
Hard · 19.2% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.3 mph
Avg launch angle25.1°
HRs allowed5
Pitches352
Sinker
Hard · 18.5% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle5.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches339
Cutter
Hard · 14.6% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle13.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches268
Curveball
Breaking · 12.1% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle-2.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches221
Slider
Breaking · 8.4% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches154
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.7% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle9.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches142
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Michael Lorenzen.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 412 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
9
0
111.4
2026-07-07
8
1
112.2
2026-07-02
9
0
109.0
2026-06-27
9
0
107.3
2026-06-21
9
2
107.0
2026-06-15
9
1
106.0
2026-06-10
9
1
107.5
2026-06-03
7
1
106.8
2026-05-29
9
0
108.6
2026-05-23
9
1
112.4
2026-05-17
9
2
111.8
2026-05-12
9
0
112.5
2026-05-06
9
2
111.7
2026-05-05
9
0
—
2026-04-30
9
2
108.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Michael Lorenzen isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.