19
HRs allowed
9.2%
HR rate (pool)
21.4%
Overall HR/FB
5.06
FIP
4.39
xFIP
+0.67
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.6 EV · 414 ft
max EV allowed 114.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Michael Lorenzen.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
20.5%
80.5
15.0°
4
+2.5
Sinker Hard
20.1%
86.5
6.9°
3
+2.2
Fastball Hard
19.1%
87.5
26.0°
6
+2.4
Cutter Hard
14.0%
84.3
12.9°
3
+1.1
Curveball Breaking
11.3%
84.3
0.1°
3
+1.9
Slider Breaking
7.6%
83.9
10.9°
1
+0.6
Sweeper Breaking
7.4%
81.4
14.3°
1
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups207
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate9.2%
Pool HR/game day0.79
Top-15 matchups22
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB21.4% 89
HR/9—
FIP5.06 83
xFIP4.39
FIP − xFIP+0.67 82
Barrel% allowed19.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Changeup
Offspeed · 20.5% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle15.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches470
Sinker
Hard · 20.1% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches461
Fastball
Hard · 19.1% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.0°
HRs allowed6
Pitches437
Cutter
Hard · 14.0% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle12.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches320
Curveball
Breaking · 11.3% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle0.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches258
Slider
Breaking · 7.6% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle10.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches175
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.4% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle14.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches169
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Michael Lorenzen.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.6 EV · 414 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-15
7
1
106.5
2026-08-09
9
1
114.6
2026-08-03
9
2
112.4
2026-07-28
6
0
109.0
2026-07-21
8
1
113.1
2026-07-12
9
0
111.4
2026-07-07
8
1
112.2
2026-07-02
9
0
109.0
2026-06-27
9
0
107.3
2026-06-21
9
2
107.0
2026-06-15
9
1
106.0
2026-06-10
9
1
107.5
2026-06-03
7
1
106.8
2026-05-29
9
0
108.6
2026-05-23
9
1
112.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Michael Lorenzen isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Michael Lorenzen isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
98
10
10%
9
2
22%
16
1
6%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Michael Lorenzen
How many home runs has Michael Lorenzen allowed this season?
Michael Lorenzen has allowed 19 home runs across 24 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Michael Lorenzen?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Michael Lorenzen include Junior Caminero (3), Alec Burleson (2), Jo Adell (2) and 35 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.