TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIA

Playable air · 1.09×

CLE @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 28 · vs Phillips → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 55

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +400 C ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez +750 D ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 20

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●○○○

3 Chase Delauter +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Phillips — 0.187 · 88.6 · 9.4% 33.3% 21.9% F B O C 56

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ HOT vs Cantillo +400 0.223 · 91.8 · 9.8% 25.0% 25.9% F B O C 59

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Cantillo Edge +475 0.243 · 92.2 · 9.3% 0.0% 33.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Cantillo Edge +750 0.171 · 89.6 · 7.4% 23.1% 14.9% F B O D 49

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Phillips Edge +750 0.131 · 86.3 · 4.6% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Phillips Edge +575 0.185 · 90.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 48

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Phillips Edge +425 0.153 · 88.9 · 9.2% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 49

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.133 · 87.5 · 3.4% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 38

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Cantillo +850 0.097 · 86.7 · 5.1% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Phillips Edge +700 0.179 · 88.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 46

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Cantillo +750 0.166 · 85.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.125 · 87.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Phillips Edge +750 0.129 · 88.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 44

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Phillips Edge — 0.054 · 83.2 · 1.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 41.2% FB 34.4% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

16.1% 8.2% 16.7% 10.6% C 56 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

9.3% 12.5% 8.8% 11.0% D 49 +425

Chase Delauter L Edge

6.6% 8.5% 2.1% 6.8% D 48 +575

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.5% 6.1% 0.0% 5.0% D 46 +700

112

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

6.1% 12.5% 0.0% 8.4% D 44 +750

131

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.2% 3.2% 1.4% 3.0% D 41 +750

210

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.3% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 27.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L

13.7% 16.3% 3.0% 12.3% C 59 +400

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

11.8% 10.2% 8.3% 11.0% C 54 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R Edge

10.3% 4.3% 2.2% 7.0% D 49 +750

110

Liam Hicks L

3.8% 3.2% 4.0% 3.7% D 44 +750

139

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.5% 3.0% 3.6% 4.6% D 40 +950

154

Javier Sanoja R Edge

0.9% 3.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 38 +950

158

Jakob Marsee L

3.0% 0.0% 8.6% 3.3% D 37 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.3% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Rocchio Stowers Hernández Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rhys Hoskins — · 56

Kyle Stowers +400 · 59

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.09× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.09× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 56 C — WARM 32 0.187 88.6 9.4% 25.0%vs RHP 383 13.2% 33.3% 21.9% 13

2 Kyle Manzardo 49 D +425 · 75 0.153 88.9 9.2% 22.2%vs RHP 389 10.7% 8.3% 11.7% 24

3 Chase Delauter 48 D +575 WARM 76 0.185 90.7 6.7% 23.1%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 43

4 Travis Bazzana 46 D +700 COOL 88 0.179 88.1 6.0% 20.0%vs RHP 395 10.0% 0.0% 13.3% 33

5 Daniel Schneemann 44 D +750 HOT 112 0.129 88.0 8.0% 12.2%vs RHP 398 6.8% 0.0% 8.8% 23

6 Brayan Rocchio 41 D +750 · 131 0.131 86.3 4.6% 12.2%vs RHP 385 6.9% 18.2% 10.2% 35

7 Steven Kwan 28 D — COOL 210 0.054 83.2 1.8% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 7.4% 31

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 59 C +400 HOT 21 0.223 91.8 9.8% 19.0% 396 11.9% 25.0% 25.9% 30

2 Heriberto Hernández 54 C +475 WARM 43 0.243 92.2 9.3% 33.3%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 33.9% 27

3 Otto Lopez 49 D +750 COOL 69 0.171 89.6 7.4% 10.5%vs LHP 402 8.6% 23.1% 14.9% 44

4 Liam Hicks 44 D +750 COOL 110 0.166 85.5 5.4% 10.0%vs LHP 376 15.6% 0.0% 10.1% 42

5 Xavier Edwards 40 D +950 COOL 139 0.125 87.0 6.0% 25.0%vs LHP 396 5.4% 0.0% 10.0% 42

6 Javier Sanoja 38 D +950 WARM 154 0.133 87.5 3.4% 20.0%vs LHP 385 5.2% 9.1% 9.6% 38

7 Jakob Marsee 37 D +850 · 158 0.097 86.7 5.1% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.6% 7.7% 8.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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