12
HRs allowed
7.7%
HR rate (pool)
14.8%
Overall HR/FB
4.14
FIP
4.08
xFIP
+0.06
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
69
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 69th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 111.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Joey Cantillo.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.8%
85.5
26.6°
7
+1.0
Changeup Offspeed
27.5%
74.2
2.5°
3
-0.6
Curveball Breaking
25.5%
79.9
-11.5°
0
-0.8
Slider Breaking
6.4%
83.5
7.0°
0
+0.7
Cutter Hard
4.8%
80.1
11.9°
2
+3.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups156
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate7.7%
Pool HR/game day0.67
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.8% 69
HR/9—
FIP4.14 54
xFIP4.08
FIP − xFIP+0.06 52
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 35.8% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches636
Changeup
Offspeed · 27.5% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.2 mph
Avg launch angle2.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches488
Curveball
Breaking · 25.5% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.9 mph
Avg launch angle-11.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches453
Slider
Breaking · 6.4% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches113
Cutter
Hard · 4.8% usage
+3.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches85
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Joey Cantillo.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 387 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
8
0
103.8
2026-07-07
9
0
104.5
2026-07-01
8
1
105.8
2026-06-26
8
1
105.9
2026-06-20
7
0
97.0
2026-06-13
9
0
106.9
2026-06-07
8
4
111.3
2026-06-02
9
1
107.7
2026-05-26
9
1
111.1
2026-05-21
9
1
103.1
2026-05-16
9
1
105.0
2026-05-11
9
0
110.8
2026-05-06
9
0
106.5
2026-05-01
9
1
108.9
2026-04-25
9
0
110.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Joey Cantillo isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.