TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.79×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 4 mph cross 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-10 ↑

12:15p

-11 ↑

1:15p

-11 ↑

2:15p

-11 ↑

3:15p

-9 ↑

4:15p

conditions build late — the 4:15p window peaks -9

Best of game Bryan Reynolds conv 21 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 28 · vs Skenes → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 80

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryan Reynolds +425 D ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +700 D ●●●○○

3 Brandon Lowe +350 D ●●○○○

FADE Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 60

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +475 C ●●●●○

2 Garrett Mitchell +575 D ●●○○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 31.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Skenes Edge +475 0.266 · 92.3 · 9.1% 31.2% 25.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Gasser Edge +425 0.195 · 90.9 · 8.6% 21.4% 20.2% F B O D 47

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Gasser +700 0.195 · 89.7 · 7.5% 15.4% 17.7% F B O D 44

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Skenes Edge +575 0.182 · 93.0 · 9.8% 13.3% 14.9% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Skenes — 0.076 · 87.7 · 4.7% 20.0% 8.0% F B O D 25

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Skenes Edge +500 0.225 · 92.6 · 9.3% 14.3% 12.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Skenes Edge +750 0.195 · 90.9 · 7.0% 13.3% 10.8% F B O D 38

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Gasser +350 0.242 · 90.9 · 9.4% 7.7% 12.6% F B O D 49

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Gasser Edge — 0.069 · 84.2 · 3.4% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 24

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.091 · 85.9 · 3.6% 7.7% 5.4% F B O D 22

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Gasser Edge +750 0.084 · 86.1 · 4.4% 7.1% 5.9% F B O D 26

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Skenes Edge +750 0.132 · 88.8 · 6.8% 6.7% 6.3% F B O D 30

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Gasser Edge +475 0.115 · 89.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 34

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Skenes +750 0.137 · 90.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.1% ← leak OFF 26.5% BRK 21.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.1% 13.8% 14.8% 14.2% C 53 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio S Edge

13.9% 4.3% 16.1% 13.5% D 45 +500

129

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.7% 5.6% 13.2% 15.0% D 41 +575

153

Brice Turang L Edge

9.5% 2.4% 9.3% 8.3% D 38 +750

198

William Contreras R

9.9% 0.0% 6.9% 8.3% D 31 +750

204

Christian Yelich L Edge

4.8% 12.5% 10.9% 7.2% D 30 +750

219

Joey Ortiz R

2.8% 0.0% 5.7% 3.5% D 25 —

224

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.2% 0.0% 5.1% 2.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.1% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.4% ← leak BRK 27.2% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

16.5% 7.1% 12.5% 12.6% D 49 +350

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.8% 14.7% 5.4% 10.2% D 47 +425

105

Ryan O'Hearn L

10.1% 6.2% 4.5% 8.5% D 44 +700

176

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.8% 8.7% 0.0% 8.2% D 34 +475

215

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 26 +750

223

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Ortiz Reynolds O'Hearn

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +475 · 53

Bryan Reynolds +425 · 47

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 4 mph cross 68°F open

-10

↑

5 mph · in

79°F

12:15p

-11

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

1:15p

-11

↑

6 mph · in

81°F

2:15p

-11

↑

7 mph · in

81°F

3:15p

-9

↑

7 mph · cross

82°F

4:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.79× 68°F, wind 4 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 53 C +475 COOL 53 0.266 92.3 9.1% 37.0%vs RHP 402 22.2% 31.2% 25.0% 34

2 Jackson Chourio 45 D +500 COOL 98 0.225 92.6 9.3% 19.2%vs RHP 402 18.2% 14.3% 12.4% 37

3 Garrett Mitchell 41 D +575 HOT 129 0.182 93.0 9.8% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.5% 13.3% 14.9% 28

4 Brice Turang 38 D +750 COOL 153 0.195 90.9 7.0% 27.7%vs RHP 408 10.9% 13.3% 10.8% 44

5 William Contreras 31 D +750 COOL 198 0.137 90.1 6.7% 18.2%vs RHP 419 10.3% 0.0% 7.7% 39

6 Christian Yelich 30 D +750 WARM 204 0.132 88.8 6.8% 14.8%vs RHP 402 6.8% 6.7% 6.3% 28

7 Joey Ortiz 25 D — WARM 219 0.076 87.7 4.7% 8.0%vs RHP 407 3.4% 20.0% 8.0% 32

8 Sal Frelick 22 D — COOL 224 0.091 85.9 3.6% 5.1%vs RHP 402 3.9% 7.7% 5.4% 31

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 49 D +350 · 70 0.242 90.9 9.4% 18.2%vs LHP 392 16.9% 7.7% 12.6% 29

2 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +425 COOL 80 0.195 90.9 8.6% 28.6%vs LHP 409 14.4% 21.4% 20.2% 30

3 Ryan O'Hearn 44 D +700 WARM 105 0.195 89.7 7.5% 21.1%vs LHP 384 15.4% 15.4% 17.7% 35

4 Marcell Ozuna 34 D +475 COOL 176 0.115 89.7 7.8% 20.0%vs LHP 413 8.6% 0.0% 9.2% 4

5 Nick Gonzales 26 D +750 WARM 215 0.084 86.1 4.4% 5.6%vs LHP 399 4.6% 7.1% 5.9% 32

6 Jake Mangum 24 D — WARM 223 0.069 84.2 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.9% 8.3% 5.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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