17
HRs allowed
10.4%
HR rate (pool)
14.9%
Overall HR/FB
2.9
FIP
3.1
xFIP
-0.20
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
69
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 69th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 114.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Paul Skenes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.9%
83.2
33.4°
5
-1.7
Sweeper Breaking
15.5%
76.2
31.4°
2
-1.6
Changeup Offspeed
14.9%
77.3
12.9°
1
+1.4
Sinker Hard
11.6%
86.2
14.7°
2
+0.1
Splitter Offspeed
11.0%
81.3
-7.3°
0
-0.9
Slider Breaking
6.2%
81.9
14.8°
1
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups164
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate10.4%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB14.9% 69
HR/9—
FIP2.9 12
xFIP3.1
FIP − xFIP-0.20 36
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 39.9% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle33.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches748
Sweeper
Breaking · 15.5% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.2 mph
Avg launch angle31.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches291
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.9% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.3 mph
Avg launch angle12.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches280
Sinker
Hard · 11.6% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle14.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches217
Splitter
Offspeed · 11.0% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle-7.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches206
Slider
Breaking · 6.2% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches117
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Paul Skenes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 389 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
9
1
110.7
2026-07-07
7
0
107.9
2026-07-01
7
3
104.0
2026-06-26
9
0
104.6
2026-06-20
8
1
104.9
2026-06-14
8
1
105.6
2026-06-09
8
1
107.1
2026-06-03
9
1
106.3
2026-05-28
9
1
103.7
2026-05-23
9
2
108.5
2026-05-17
9
2
110.6
2026-05-12
9
0
111.2
2026-05-06
9
0
105.7
2026-04-30
9
2
114.0
2026-04-24
9
0
110.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Paul Skenes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.