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1 Rafael Devers 6 HRs · 2 Max Muncy 6 HRs · 3 Mickey Gasper 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 6 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 7 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 8 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 9 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 10 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 11 Heriberto Hernández 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs 1 Rafael Devers 6 HRs · 2 Max Muncy 6 HRs · 3 Mickey Gasper 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 6 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 7 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 8 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 9 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 10 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 11 Heriberto Hernández 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — September 1, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-09-01: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 1, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

26
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.2 vs 44.3
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-09-01.
Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
1/10
10.0%
Top 15
1/15
6.7%
Top 25
2/25
8.0%

Home runs, graded

26 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#9 Jordan Walker Eric Lauer
Dodger Stadium
 67 C+ Value
#22 Michael Harris II Jake Irvin
Nationals Park
 60 C+ Value
#37 Fernando Tatis Jr. Nick Lodolo
Great American Ball Park
 56 C BelowAvg
#45 Rafael Devers Paul Skenes
PNC Park
 55 C BelowAvg
#53 Francisco Lindor Freddy Peralta
Tropicana Field
 53 C BelowAvg
#62 Brandon Lowe Logan Webb
PNC Park
 51 C BelowAvg
#64 Kody Clemens Troy Melton
Target Field
 51 C BelowAvg
#65 Yandy Díaz Sean Manaea
Tropicana Field
 51 C BelowAvg
#66 Christian Yelich Matthew Boyd
Wrigley Field
 51 C BelowAvg
#75 Kyle Stowers Randy Dobnak
Kauffman Stadium
 49 D Below
#79 Dominic Canzone BOS Bullpen Proxy
Fenway Park
 52 C BelowAvg
#88 Ozzie Albies Jake Irvin
Nationals Park
 47 D Below
#101 Mickey Gasper Bryan Woo
Fenway Park
 46 D Below
#109 Isaac Paredes Sean Burke
Minute Maid Park
 46 D Below
#111 Joey Ortiz Matthew Boyd
Wrigley Field
 46 D Below
#118 Ryan Jeffers Troy Melton
Target Field
 45 D Below
#142 Randy Arozarena BOS Bullpen Proxy
Fenway Park
 45 D Below
#149 Nick Loftin Tyler Phillips
Kauffman Stadium
 41 D Below
#150 Royce Lewis Troy Melton
Target Field
 41 D Below
#154 Angel Martínez Spencer Miles
Progressive Field
 40 D Below
#162 Tj Rumfield Kyle Bradish
Coors Field
 39 D Below
#163 Jazz Chisholm Grayson Rodriguez
Angel Stadium
 39 D Below
#186 Jackson Holliday Gabriel Hughes
Coors Field
 36 D Below
#212 Graham Pauley Randy Dobnak
Kauffman Stadium
 33 D Below
#215 Patrick Bailey Spencer Miles
Progressive Field
 32 D Below
#230 Jeff McNeil MacKenzie Gore
Globe Life Field
 30 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Francisco Lindor, Brandon Lowe, Kody Clemens, Yandy Díaz, Christian Yelich, Kyle Stowers, Dominic Canzone, Ozzie Albies, Mickey Gasper, Isaac Paredes, Joey Ortiz, Ryan Jeffers, Randy Arozarena, Nick Loftin, Royce Lewis, Angel Martínez, Tj Rumfield, Jazz Chisholm, Jackson Holliday, Graham Pauley, Patrick Bailey, Jeff McNeil

← 2026-08-31 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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