TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.22×

AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.22× Wind 1 mph slight_out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

1:10p

+13 ↑

2:10p

+15 ↑

3:10p

+17 ↑

4:10p

+18 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +18

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 28 · vs Sheehan ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 33 · vs Proxy → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 95

1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +425 C ●●●●○

2 Ketel Marte +245 C+ ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll +280 C+ ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 62

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +192 B ●●●●●

2 Andy Pages +330 C ●●●○○

3 Freddie Freeman +350 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 35.5% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Proxy +192 0.248 · 93.5 · 16.4% 30.8% 35.5% F B O B 78

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Sheehan +425 0.169 · 85.2 · 8.1% 33.3% 23.1% F B O C 56

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Sheehan Edge +245 0.208 · 91.4 · 10.6% 23.1% 25.8% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Proxy +330 0.199 · 89.1 · 8.4% 15.4% 18.7% F B O C 58

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Proxy +350 0.198 · 90.5 · 10.9% 15.4% 15.9% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Proxy — 0.232 · 90.4 · 13.8% 6.7% 19.3% F B O C+ 67

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Sheehan Edge +280 0.227 · 91.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Proxy +390 0.181 · 90.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 53

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Proxy — 0.169 · 90.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 50

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Sheehan +500 0.164 · 89.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Sheehan Edge +700 0.114 · 87.2 · 5.8% 7.7% 10.5% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Sheehan Edge — 0.147 · 87.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Proxy — 0.094 · 88.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Proxy +475 0.130 · 88.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.3% ← leak BRK 41.2% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.6% 7.9% 4.3% 11.2% C+ 63 +245

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.1% 14.3% 6.0% 11.1% C+ 61 +280

Nolan Arenado R

9.4% 1.3% 4.0% 6.2% C 56 +425

Gabriel Moreno R

7.1% 8.9% 10.7% 8.1% C 50 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 1.7% 1.9% 3.5% D 45 —

120

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 43 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.3% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Ohtani Freeman Pages

Legend

attack side — vs Sheehan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Shohei Ohtani +192 · 78

Nolan Arenado +425 · 56

Ketel Marte +245 · 63

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.22× Wind 1 mph slight_out 67°F open

+14

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

1:10p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

2:10p

+15

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

3:10p

+17

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

4:10p

+18

↑

11 mph · out

88°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 67°F, wind 1 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 63 C+ +245 · 12 0.208 91.4 10.6% 14.9%vs RHP 413 15.6% 23.1% 25.8% 42

2 Corbin Carroll 61 C+ +280 COOL 16 0.227 91.3 10.7% 21.7%vs RHP 406 13.3% 0.0% 21.2% 26

3 Nolan Arenado 56 C +425 WARM 34 0.169 85.2 8.1% 17.4%vs RHP 395 12.6% 33.3% 23.1% 24

4 Gabriel Moreno 50 C +500 COOL 62 0.164 89.2 8.7% 16.2%vs RHP 395 8.0% 0.0% 13.1% 36

5 Ildemaro Vargas 45 D — COOL 99 0.147 87.1 6.1% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.8% 0.0% 11.8% 23

6 Geraldo Perdomo 43 D +700 COOL 120 0.114 87.2 5.8% 9.8%vs RHP 386 6.2% 7.7% 10.5% 38

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 78 B +192 COOL 1 0.248 93.5 16.4% 24.4% 405 20.0% 30.8% 35.5% 32

2 Max Muncy 67 C+ — COOL 10 0.232 90.4 13.8% 21.5% 409 17.9% 6.7% 19.3% 35

3 Freddie Freeman 60 C+ +350 COOL 29 0.198 90.5 10.9% 15.6% 398 14.3% 15.4% 15.9% 39

4 Andy Pages 58 C +330 COOL 42 0.199 89.1 8.4% 15.2% 389 15.2% 15.4% 18.7% 33

5 Mookie Betts 53 C +390 WARM 68 0.181 90.8 8.5% 12.2% 385 11.3% 0.0% 13.3% 39

6 Teoscar Hernandez 50 C — COOL 85 0.169 90.1 10.1% 16.7% 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 25

7 Kyle Tucker 43 D +475 · 144 0.130 88.9 5.3% 7.6% 399 5.6% 0.0% 9.0% 31

8 Alex Freeland 40 D — COOL 160 0.094 88.7 5.3% 9.1% 373 2.8% 0.0% 9.2% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.