TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.22×

HOU @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:35p

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2:35p

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3:35p

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4:35p

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5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Yordan Alvarez conv 33 · vs Gore ⟷ Wyatt Langford conv 29 · vs Javier → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 9

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yordan Alvarez — C+ ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker — C ●●●○○

3 Brice Matthews — D ●●●○○

FADE Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 3

2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wyatt Langford — C ●●●●○

2 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Gore — 0.305 · 94.8 · 12.4% 41.7% 24.7% F B O C+ 67

· TEX Wyatt Langford HOT vs Javier — 0.219 · 88.9 · 9.3% 33.3% 25.1% F B O C 54

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Javier Edge — 0.233 · 92.0 · 10.9% 37.5% 19.9% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Javier — 0.191 · 89.9 · 10.4% 18.2% 24.6% F B O C 55

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.234 · 89.5 · 9.1% 16.7% 21.6% F B O C 52

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Javier Edge — 0.165 · 92.6 · 11.9% 12.5% 7.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Javier — 0.149 · 88.6 · 8.1% 25.0% 21.9% F B O D 48

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.132 · 86.8 · 8.4% 25.0% 12.5% F B O D 39

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.159 · 85.7 · 7.0% 18.2% 11.0% F B O D 38

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Gore Edge — 0.162 · 86.7 · 7.0% 16.7% 7.4% F B O D 39

· TEX Josh Jung vs Javier — 0.148 · 90.5 · 7.9% 11.1% 12.8% F B O D 45

· HOU Cam Smith vs Gore Edge — 0.150 · 89.4 · 9.9% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 42

· TEX Kyle Higashioka COOL vs Javier — 0.149 · 87.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 45

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.105 · 86.0 · 3.4% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 27

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Gore Edge — 0.145 · 87.3 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.138 · 87.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 42

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.054 · 85.1 · — 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L

18.8% 23.8% 10.9% 18.6% C+ 67 —

Christian Walker R Edge

9.0% 11.6% 14.3% 10.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

134

Cam Smith R Edge

9.8% 15.7% 20.0% 12.1% D 42 —

155

Brice Matthews R Edge

13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% D 39 —

159

Isaac Paredes R Edge

7.3% 4.3% 2.6% 5.9% D 39 —

164

Jose Altuve R Edge

6.3% 6.7% 0.0% 6.0% D 38 —

195

Jeremy Peña R Edge

2.2% 4.0% 14.3% 3.8% D 34 —

228

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.5% BRK 24.6% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L Edge

16.0% 9.6% 4.5% 11.6% C+ 60 —

Jake Burger R

9.2% 12.1% 11.1% 10.5% C 55 —

Wyatt Langford R

7.1% 11.9% 8.3% 8.6% C 54 —

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.7% 19.2% 15.8% 13.7% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

9.2% 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% D 48 —

Kyle Higashioka R

11.1% 2.8% 16.7% 8.8% D 45 —

101

Josh Jung R

8.3% 3.3% 0.0% 5.8% D 45 —

136

Evan Carter L Edge

9.0% 5.4% 0.0% 6.7% D 42 —

243

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Javier's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Matthews Altuve Pederson Burger Langford Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Yordan Alvarez — · 67

Wyatt Langford — · 54

Joc Pederson — · 60

Ezequiel Duran — · 48

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 94°F retractable

-4

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7 mph · cross

78°F

1:35p · peak

-4

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7 mph · cross

78°F

2:35p

-4

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7 mph · cross

78°F

3:35p

-4

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7 mph · cross

78°F

4:35p

-4

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7 mph · cross

78°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 94°F, wind 4 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 67 C+ — WARM 7 0.305 94.8 12.4% 29.6%vs LHP 404 29.3% 41.7% 24.7% 38

2 Christian Walker 52 C — COOL 50 0.234 89.5 9.1% 25.0%vs LHP 388 19.6% 16.7% 21.6% 29

3 Cam Smith 42 D — · 134 0.150 89.4 9.9% 20.0%vs LHP 415 11.5% 10.0% 10.5% 36

4 Brice Matthews 39 D — COOL 155 0.132 86.8 8.4% 30.8%vs LHP 403 11.1% 25.0% 12.5% 15

5 Isaac Paredes 39 D — · 159 0.162 86.7 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 373 11.0% 16.7% 7.4% 40

6 Jose Altuve 38 D — COOL 164 0.159 85.7 7.0% 12.5%vs LHP 379 8.5% 18.2% 11.0% 33

7 Jeremy Peña 34 D — WARM 195 0.145 87.3 5.6% 11.1%vs LHP 388 7.7% 0.0% 8.0% 9

8 Christian Vazquez 27 D — COOL 228 0.105 86.0 3.4% 11.1%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 9

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 60 C+ — WARM 20 0.233 92.0 10.9% 28.0%vs RHP 392 20.0% 37.5% 19.9% 19

2 Jake Burger 55 C — COOL 36 0.191 89.9 10.4% 24.5%vs RHP 400 15.3% 18.2% 24.6% 30

3 Wyatt Langford 54 C — HOT 41 0.219 88.9 9.3% 20.7%vs RHP 401 16.4% 33.3% 25.1% 7

4 Brandon Nimmo 51 C — · 56 0.165 92.6 11.9% 13.3%vs RHP 409 9.5% 12.5% 7.9% 18

5 Ezequiel Duran 48 D — · 71 0.149 88.6 8.1% 16.7%vs RHP 385 13.5% 25.0% 21.9% 39

6 Kyle Higashioka 45 D — COOL 96 0.149 87.9 9.3% 17.4%vs RHP 396 7.9% 0.0% 17.7% 15

7 Josh Jung 45 D — WARM 101 0.148 90.5 7.9% 15.9%vs RHP 386 10.7% 11.1% 12.8% 24

8 Evan Carter 42 D — COOL 136 0.138 87.5 8.5% 14.3%vs RHP 377 9.3% 0.0% 6.3% 19

9 Nicky Lopez 23 D — COOL 243 0.054 85.1 — 8.3%vs RHP 397 3.1% 0.0% 5.1% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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