TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

TOR @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 3 mph cross 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-10 ↑

1:10p

-11 ↑

2:10p

-10 ↑

3:10p

-10 ↑

4:10p

-11 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -10

Best of game Manny Machado conv 32 · vs Gausman ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 27 · vs Márquez → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 96

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +400 C ●●●●●

2 Ty France +575 D ●●○○○

3 Jackson Merrill +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Germán Márquez RHP · SD

leak 83

2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 George Springer +350 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Gausman +400 0.216 · 90.1 · 9.8% 35.7% 27.5% F B O C 54

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ COOL vs Márquez +290 0.227 · 91.3 · 11.6% 27.3% 26.0% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Márquez +350 0.167 · 88.3 · 8.6% 14.3% 16.1% F B O D 45

· SD Ty France COOL vs Gausman +575 0.204 · 91.1 · 9.6% 7.7% 15.5% F B O D 45

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Gausman Edge +475 0.134 · 89.4 · 9.2% 14.3% 7.7% F B O D 39

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Márquez Edge +850 0.102 · 86.5 · 3.4% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 31

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Gausman +575 0.110 · 88.2 · 7.2% 7.1% 8.6% F B O D 33

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Gausman Edge +500 0.213 · 88.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 43

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Márquez Edge +525 0.170 · 88.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Gausman — 0.153 · 88.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 32

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Márquez Edge +400 0.146 · 85.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Márquez Edge +750 0.131 · 86.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Márquez +850 0.129 · 85.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 47.7% OFF 3.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.3% 8.3% 17.6% 14.3% C+ 60 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

George Springer R

8.8% 6.2% 8.7% 8.0% D 45 +350

118

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.8% 22.2% 13.0% 8.0% D 43 +525

146

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.0% 1.6% 6.9% 6.0% D 39 +400

185

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 3.4% D 33 +750

189

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.2% D 33 +850

197

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.6% 2.9% 1.2% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Márquez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.3% ← leak OFF 38.7% BRK 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Manny Machado R

13.0% 5.9% 7.1% 10.4% C 54 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

101

Ty France R

10.1% 8.7% 10.0% 9.9% D 45 +575

117

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.3% 4.5% 4.9% 8.1% D 43 +500

148

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.2% 7.5% 9.0% 9.3% D 39 +475

187

Xander Bogaerts R

7.3% 4.8% 3.3% 6.1% D 33 +575

191

Miguel Andujar R

3.7% 3.7% 4.9% 4.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.3% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +400 · 54

Kazuma Okamoto +290 · 60

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 3 mph cross 66°F open

-10

↑

10 mph · cross

77°F

1:10p · peak

-11

↑

11 mph · in

79°F

2:10p

-10

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

3:10p

-10

↑

10 mph · in

78°F

4:10p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

78°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 66°F, wind 3 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Germán Márquez · RHP 2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 60 C+ +290 COOL 18 0.227 91.3 11.6% 32.0%vs RHP 397 21.3% 27.3% 26.0% 30

2 George Springer 45 D +350 WARM 96 0.167 88.3 8.6% 22.9%vs RHP 394 10.1% 14.3% 16.1% 13

3 Brandon Valenzuela 43 D +525 COOL 118 0.170 88.3 8.6% 20.8%vs RHP 397 9.7% 0.0% 11.0% 8

4 Daulton Varsho 39 D +400 COOL 146 0.146 85.7 7.6% 12.5%vs RHP 386 7.7% 0.0% 8.5% 30

5 Andres Gimenez 33 D +750 COOL 185 0.131 86.3 5.7% 12.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 18

6 Ernie Clement 33 D +850 COOL 189 0.129 85.3 4.5% 6.7%vs RHP 374 8.0% 0.0% 6.5% 41

7 Nathan Lukes 31 D +850 WARM 197 0.102 86.5 3.4% 13.8%vs RHP 378 5.4% 8.3% 7.8% 36

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 54 C +400 WARM 46 0.216 90.1 9.8% 30.0%vs RHP 395 20.2% 35.7% 27.5% 30

2 Ty France 45 D +575 COOL 101 0.204 91.1 9.6% 30.8%vs RHP 393 15.4% 7.7% 15.5% 27

3 Gavin Sheets 43 D +500 COOL 117 0.213 88.3 8.3% 34.9%vs RHP 397 12.2% 0.0% 14.1% 33

4 Jackson Merrill 39 D +475 COOL 148 0.134 89.4 9.2% 14.5%vs RHP 406 11.4% 14.3% 7.7% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +575 · 187 0.110 88.2 7.2% 17.5%vs RHP 395 9.2% 7.1% 8.6% 32

6 Miguel Andujar 32 D — · 191 0.153 88.4 6.2% 15.4%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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