TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ WSH

Playable air · 1.06×

NYY @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

1:35p

+11 ↑

2:35p

+10 ↑

3:35p

+9 ↑

4:35p

+8 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +12

Best of game James Wood conv 47 · vs Warren ⟷ Ben Rice conv 40 · vs Cavalli → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 82

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +280 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +475 C ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 71

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +370 B ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +400 D ●●●○○

3 Austin Wells +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 58.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Warren Edge +280 0.274 · 95.1 · 12.8% 58.3% 35.1% F B O B 74

· NYY Ben Rice vs Cavalli Edge +370 0.321 · 92.0 · 10.5% 46.2% 34.0% F B O B 71

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Warren +475 0.235 · 88.1 · 9.0% 18.2% 18.4% F B O C 57

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Warren Edge +400 0.233 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 31.1% F B O C 54

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Cavalli — 0.221 · 86.8 · 9.3% 12.5% 14.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Cavalli Edge +400 0.174 · 91.0 · 9.0% 25.0% 11.3% F B O D 48

· NYY Austin Wells vs Cavalli Edge +500 0.107 · 88.9 · 6.8% 22.2% 13.4% F B O D 41

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Warren Edge +750 0.186 · 89.3 · 6.2% 12.5% 11.4% F B O D 46

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Warren Edge +525 0.161 · 87.9 · 7.3% 10.0% 13.6% F B O D 45

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Cavalli +850 0.145 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 36

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Cavalli Edge +525 0.153 · 90.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Warren +950 0.142 · 88.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 41

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Cavalli Edge +500 0.160 · 88.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.100 · 83.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Warren Edge — 0.049 · 84.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% BRK 39.1% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.2% 9.6% 12.8% 14.8% B 71 +370

Neutral · 1

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.9% 6.2% 10.7% 11.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.5% 11.4% 6.1% 10.6% D 48 +400

102

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.5% 5.6% 20.0% 11.8% D 45 +525

126

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.4% 13.3% 9.3% 6.6% D 42 +500

134

Austin Wells L Edge

9.3% 7.1% 0.0% 7.5% D 41 +500

162

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Cavalli's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.4% ← leak BRK 23.3% OFF 10.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.3% 25.7% 14.8% 22.5% B 74 +280

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R

13.0% 10.2% 3.4% 10.8% C 57 +475

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.5% 7.4% 9.8% 9.7% C 54 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.3% 1.9% 3.2% 5.6% D 46 +750

103

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.1% 10.8% 4.2% 7.5% D 45 +525

135

Jacob Young R

6.9% 4.7% 3.8% 5.9% D 41 +950

170

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.4% 4.9% 3.8% 3.9% D 35 —

220

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.4% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells Wood Mead Abrams

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

James Wood +280 · 74

Ben Rice +370 · 71

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 75°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

1:35p · peak

+11

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

2:35p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

3:35p

↑

9 mph · out

82°F

4:35p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 75°F, wind 4 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 71 B +370 WARM 3 0.321 92.0 10.5% 36.7%vs RHP 389 27.9% 46.2% 34.0% 33

2 Paul Goldschmidt 52 C — COOL 57 0.221 86.8 9.3% 22.2%vs RHP 391 18.5% 12.5% 14.3% 17

3 Trent Grisham 48 D +400 COOL 79 0.174 91.0 9.0% 14.9%vs RHP 388 10.3% 25.0% 11.3% 21

4 Ryan Mcmahon 45 D +525 WARM 102 0.153 90.7 8.9% 22.9%vs RHP 380 50.0% 0.0% 13.7% 7

5 Cody Bellinger 42 D +500 COOL 126 0.160 88.9 7.1% 10.9%vs RHP 379 10.3% 0.0% 9.8% 32

6 Austin Wells 41 D +500 WARM 134 0.107 88.9 6.8% 10.0%vs RHP 376 9.8% 22.2% 13.4% 18

7 Jose Caballero 36 D +850 WARM 162 0.145 83.9 5.4% 19.4%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 25

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 74 B +280 · 2 0.274 95.1 12.8% 36.7%vs RHP 412 29.9% 58.3% 35.1% 32

2 Curtis Mead 57 C +475 · 28 0.235 88.1 9.0% 27.3%vs RHP 400 22.2% 18.2% 18.4% 32

3 Cj Abrams 54 C +400 · 45 0.233 89.8 8.5% 28.8%vs RHP 391 33.3% 0.0% 31.1% 33

4 Keibert Ruiz 46 D +750 WARM 94 0.186 89.3 6.2% 8.7%vs RHP 378 13.5% 12.5% 11.4% 25

5 Daylen Lile 45 D +525 HOT 103 0.161 87.9 7.3% 12.4%vs RHP 402 8.2% 10.0% 13.6% 31

6 Jacob Young 41 D +950 COOL 135 0.142 88.6 6.7% 17.9%vs RHP 391 7.9% 0.0% 10.0% 17

7 Jorbit Vivas 35 D — COOL 170 0.100 83.5 5.3% 10.7%vs RHP 392 4.0% 0.0% 8.3% 20

8 Nasim Nunez 25 D — WARM 220 0.049 84.9 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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