17
HRs allowed
10.6%
HR rate (pool)
8.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.22
FIP
4.04
xFIP
-0.82
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
13
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 13th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
80.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.8 EV · 392 ft
max EV allowed 111.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Cade Cavalli.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.1%
84.6
28.2°
3
+0.2
Knuckle Curve Breaking
27.4%
79.7
-3.3°
2
-0.4
Sinker Hard
15.5%
84.5
7.7°
0
-0.5
Sweeper Breaking
11.0%
79.4
10.0°
0
-0.3
Changeup Offspeed
8.1%
82.5
4.7°
3
+1.5
Cutter Hard
2.9%
76.6
20.7°
0
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups161
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate10.6%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups14
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB8.3% 13
HR/9—
FIP3.22 21
xFIP4.04
FIP − xFIP-0.82 8
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed80.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 35.1% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle28.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches612
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 27.4% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle-3.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches478
Sinker
Hard · 15.5% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches270
Sweeper
Breaking · 11.0% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.4 mph
Avg launch angle10.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches192
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.1% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches142
Cutter
Hard · 2.9% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.6 mph
Avg launch angle20.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches50
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Cade Cavalli.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.8 EV · 392 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
8
0
106.2
2026-07-05
9
2
107.6
2026-06-30
7
0
102.5
2026-06-25
7
2
108.8
2026-06-20
8
0
109.3
2026-06-13
7
1
104.8
2026-06-07
7
2
106.4
2026-06-01
9
2
107.0
2026-05-26
9
0
107.5
2026-05-21
9
0
105.9
2026-05-16
9
2
110.9
2026-05-10
9
0
104.9
2026-05-05
9
1
108.0
2026-04-29
9
0
105.5
2026-04-23
9
1
111.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Cade Cavalli isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.