19
HRs allowed
11.7%
HR rate (pool)
14.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.14
FIP
3.14
xFIP
-0.00
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
69
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 69th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.1 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 116.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Will Warren.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
38.5%
84.6
31.2°
7
-0.4
Sinker Hard
26.9%
86.5
5.5°
3
+0.5
Sweeper Breaking
19.6%
81.7
18.9°
3
+1.8
Changeup Offspeed
10.9%
78.7
-4.5°
0
-1.1
Curveball Breaking
4.0%
84.5
11.6°
1
+2.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups163
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate11.7%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups22
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB14.9% 69
HR/9—
FIP3.14 18
xFIP3.14
FIP − xFIP-0.00 48
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 38.5% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle31.2°
HRs allowed7
Pitches659
Sinker
Hard · 26.9% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle5.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches461
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.6% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle18.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches335
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.9% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle-4.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches187
Curveball
Breaking · 4.0% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches69
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Will Warren.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.1 EV · 400 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
7
1
110.0
2026-07-07
8
2
116.9
2026-07-01
9
1
109.3
2026-06-26
8
1
111.9
2026-06-20
8
1
105.6
2026-06-14
7
1
105.1
2026-06-08
9
1
105.1
2026-06-06
8
0
—
2026-05-31
9
2
108.6
2026-05-25
9
2
112.2
2026-05-19
9
0
105.0
2026-05-12
9
0
107.5
2026-05-06
9
2
109.1
2026-05-01
9
1
107.6
2026-04-24
9
1
111.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Will Warren isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.