TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 1:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph slight_out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:40p

+2 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

+4 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 31 · vs Boyd ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Abbott → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 95

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +290 C+ ●●●●○

3 Nathaniel Lowe — C ●●●○○

FADE Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 80

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +290 C ●●●●○

3 Dansby Swanson +350 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 15.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Boyd Edge +290 0.232 · 94.5 · 13.6% 23.1% 38.0% F B O C+ 65

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Boyd Edge +290 0.218 · 90.7 · 13.3% 23.1% 32.5% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Abbott +290 0.239 · 90.4 · 9.2% 25.0% 29.7% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Abbott Edge +290 0.201 · 89.1 · 8.6% 25.0% 29.7% F B O C 57

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Abbott Edge +350 0.196 · 90.1 · 7.8% 16.7% 25.8% F B O C 54

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Boyd — 0.201 · 88.5 · 11.4% 20.0% 14.4% F B O C 54

· CIN Spencer Steer vs Boyd Edge +390 0.185 · 89.6 · 12.4% 9.1% 15.4% F B O C 54

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Boyd +390 0.248 · 88.8 · 10.9% 0.0% 23.0% F B O C 54

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Abbott Edge +330 0.215 · 89.7 · 9.9% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Abbott Edge +425 0.119 · 88.3 · 7.1% 25.0% 11.6% F B O D 44

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Abbott +400 0.154 · 88.1 · 9.0% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 49

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Abbott Edge +425 0.129 · 87.9 · 5.8% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 41

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Boyd Edge +320 0.153 · 87.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 43

· CIN Tyler Stephenson COOL vs Boyd Edge +425 0.134 · 91.2 · 11.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Abbott Edge +950 0.096 · 85.8 · 2.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 32

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Boyd — 0.098 · 87.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.1% ← leak BRK 34.3% OFF 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.1% 12.9% 11.5% 10.6% C+ 62 +290

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.1% 9.6% 6.2% 9.6% C 57 +290

Ian Happ S Edge

15.2% 20.4% 3.6% 13.4% C 56 +330

Dansby Swanson R Edge

8.3% 4.1% 14.3% 7.7% C 54 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L

12.6% 7.0% 3.2% 10.2% D 49 +400

113

Carson Kelly R Edge

8.2% 3.9% 6.2% 6.8% D 44 +425

133

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.5% 6.4% 6.9% 5.2% D 41 +425

192

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.1% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.1% ← leak OFF 27.2% BRK 23.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.5% 4.8% 11.6% 15.3% C+ 65 +290

Sal Stewart R Edge

16.1% 12.5% 10.0% 13.8% C+ 62 +290

Jj Bleday L

9.5% 6.5% 10.8% 9.0% C 54 +390

Spencer Steer R Edge

12.5% 14.3% 11.1% 12.3% C 54 +390

Nathaniel Lowe L

8.7% 13.3% 10.0% 9.9% C 54 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

100

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

13.7% 6.7% 4.4% 10.5% D 45 +425

115

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

8.9% 7.7% 3.0% 7.5% D 43 +320

168

Tj Friedl L

3.0% 0.0% 4.3% 2.8% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.1% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Swanson Busch Kelly Cruz Stewart Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Elly De La Cruz +290 · 65

Sal Stewart +290 · 62

Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 · 62

Seiya Suzuki +290 · 57

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph slight_out 70°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

76°F

1:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

78°F

3:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

4:40p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 70°F, wind 4 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 62 C+ +290 COOL 13 0.239 90.4 9.2% 25.0%vs LHP 393 20.0% 25.0% 29.7% 26

2 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +290 COOL 24 0.201 89.1 8.6% 35.7%vs LHP 408 14.9% 25.0% 29.7% 35

3 Ian Happ 56 C +330 COOL 33 0.215 89.7 9.9% 16.0%vs LHP 402 19.1% 0.0% 15.3% 27

4 Dansby Swanson 54 C +350 WARM 47 0.196 90.1 7.8% 23.8%vs LHP 403 14.0% 16.7% 25.8% 35

5 Michael Busch 49 D +400 COOL 71 0.154 88.1 9.0% 11.5%vs LHP 403 12.5% 16.7% 12.5% 31

6 Carson Kelly 44 D +425 COOL 113 0.119 88.3 7.1% 15.0%vs LHP 417 7.5% 25.0% 11.6% 16

7 Alex Bregman 41 D +425 · 133 0.129 87.9 5.8% 11.1%vs LHP 398 7.5% 16.7% 8.7% 38

8 Nico Hoerner 32 D +950 WARM 192 0.096 85.8 2.6% 9.1%vs LHP 383 4.3% 0.0% 8.4% 35

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 65 C+ +290 WARM 7 0.232 94.5 13.6% 44.4%vs LHP 395 16.4% 23.1% 38.0% 33

2 Sal Stewart 62 C+ +290 · 14 0.218 90.7 13.3% 33.3%vs LHP 389 12.7% 23.1% 32.5% 39

3 Jj Bleday 54 C +390 COOL 44 0.248 88.8 10.9% 25.0%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 32

4 Spencer Steer 54 C +390 WARM 49 0.185 89.6 12.4% 27.3%vs LHP 393 12.8% 9.1% 15.4% 27

5 Nathaniel Lowe 54 C — COOL 50 0.201 88.5 11.4% 21.4% 398 15.4% 20.0% 14.4% 8

6 Tyler Stephenson 45 D +425 COOL 100 0.134 91.2 11.3% 6.7%vs LHP 384 6.9% 0.0% 8.5% 23

7 Eugenio Suarez 43 D +320 HOT 115 0.153 87.4 9.9% 23.1%vs LHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 17

8 Tj Friedl 35 D — WARM 168 0.098 87.8 6.0% 6.2% 374 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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