TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.29×

KC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 7 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:35p

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2:35p

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3:35p

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4:35p

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5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 29 · vs Lugo ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 21 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 87

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo — C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 19

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen — C ●●●○○

2 Isaac Collins — D ●●○○○

3 Lane Thomas — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Lugo Edge — 0.209 · 91.4 · 11.3% 30.0% 27.6% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Lugo — 0.214 · 93.7 · 11.3% 25.0% 32.5% F B O C+ 67

· KC Carter Jensen vs Baz Edge — 0.185 · 90.7 · 8.3% 20.0% 21.7% F B O C 55

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.203 · 93.2 · 10.7% 9.1% 15.3% F B O C 57

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.171 · 87.3 · 10.3% 10.0% 12.3% F B O C 52

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.182 · 89.8 · 8.6% 8.3% 12.5% F B O C 55

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Lugo Edge — 0.147 · 86.7 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· KC Isaac Collins vs Baz Edge — 0.116 · 88.5 · 6.9% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Baz — 0.152 · 89.1 · 7.1% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 49

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.127 · 87.3 · 6.6% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 44

· KC Salvador Perez vs Baz — 0.150 · 89.2 · 8.5% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 49

· BAL Blaze Alexander vs Lugo — 0.125 · 92.4 · 8.4% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 48

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Lugo — 0.095 · 89.3 · 7.5% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 43

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Baz Edge — 0.123 · 88.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.168 · 90.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 47

· KC Josh Rojas COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.151 · 84.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· BAL Dylan Beavers vs Lugo Edge — 0.120 · 87.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 33.3% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

14.7% 16.7% 11.6% 14.8% C 57 —

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.9% 7.5% 8.6% 8.8% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Lane Thomas R

9.0% 0.0% 5.9% 6.9% D 49 —

Salvador Perez R

13.3% 6.2% 11.4% 10.3% D 49 —

Michael Massey L Edge

8.8% 4.9% 3.0% 7.0% D 47 —

113

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.8% 7.7% 0.0% 6.0% D 44 —

114

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.9% 3.5% 8.0% 7.4% D 44 —

116

Josh Rojas L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 4.2% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 35.8% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Alonso R

16.0% 7.6% 15.6% 13.5% C+ 67 —

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.5% 12.1% 9.1% 13.1% C+ 64 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

8.1% 6.7% 7.7% 7.6% C 55 —

Jackson Holliday L Edge

12.5% 4.5% 15.4% 10.8% C 52 —

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.7% 16.1% 2.8% 11.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Blaze Alexander R

6.9% 7.3% 6.2% 7.0% D 48 —

115

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 9.5% 0.0% 4.7% D 44 —

118

Dylan Beavers L Edge

8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% D 44 —

129

Taylor Ward R

8.6% 0.0% 2.9% 5.6% D 43 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Thomas Collins Alonso Basallo Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs Lugo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Samuel Basallo — · 64

Pete Alonso — · 67

Carter Jensen — · 55

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 7 mph cross 84°F open

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

1:35p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

2:35p

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

3:35p

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

4:35p

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 84°F, wind 7 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 57 C — COOL 26 0.203 93.2 10.7% 26.5%vs RHP 414 13.1% 9.1% 15.3% 37

2 Carter Jensen 55 C — WARM 37 0.185 90.7 8.3% 19.3%vs RHP 393 15.5% 20.0% 21.7% 23

3 Lane Thomas 49 D — HOT 67 0.152 89.1 7.1% 16.7%vs RHP 411 14.0% 16.7% 12.7% 34

4 Salvador Perez 49 D — WARM 68 0.150 89.2 8.5% 15.7%vs RHP 395 13.5% 10.0% 10.3% 31

5 Michael Massey 47 D — COOL 82 0.168 90.5 7.3% 10.5%vs RHP 398 6.8% 0.0% 10.3% 25

6 Isaac Collins 44 D — WARM 113 0.116 88.5 6.9% 5.4%vs RHP 395 6.3% 20.0% 12.0% 25

7 Vinnie Pasquantino 44 D — WARM 114 0.123 88.6 7.4% 13.3%vs RHP 395 9.1% 0.0% 10.5% 3

8 Josh Rojas 44 D — COOL 116 0.151 84.9 5.8% 14.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 11

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 6 0.214 93.7 11.3% 29.3%vs RHP 401 20.2% 25.0% 32.5% 27

2 Samuel Basallo 64 C+ — WARM 11 0.209 91.4 11.3% 27.7%vs RHP 398 16.2% 30.0% 27.6% 27

3 Gunnar Henderson 55 C — COOL 39 0.182 89.8 8.6% 16.1%vs RHP 389 17.4% 8.3% 12.5% 42

4 Jackson Holliday 52 C — COOL 51 0.171 87.3 10.3% 20.0%vs RHP 384 5.0% 10.0% 12.3% 24

5 Colton Cowser 52 C — WARM 52 0.147 86.7 10.7% 21.6%vs RHP 417 15.2% 0.0% 10.8% 11

6 Blaze Alexander 48 D — · 77 0.125 92.4 8.4% 10.0%vs RHP 403 6.6% 10.0% 9.3% 29

7 Leody Taveras 44 D — COOL 115 0.127 87.3 6.6% 8.8%vs RHP 410 1.6% 16.7% 10.2% 16

8 Dylan Beavers 44 D — · 118 0.120 87.5 7.3% 12.5%vs RHP 406 2.7% 0.0% 8.6% 16

9 Taylor Ward 43 D — · 129 0.095 89.3 7.5% 5.8%vs RHP 387 6.3% 8.3% 8.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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