17
HRs allowed
10.8%
HR rate (pool)
7.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.21
FIP
4.05
xFIP
-0.85
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
10
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 10th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
81.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.3 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 111.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Seth Lugo.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
19.7%
85.7
15.2°
4
-0.3
Fastball Hard
16.9%
84.5
22.8°
2
+2.1
Cutter Hard
16.5%
81.2
27.7°
3
+0.1
Curveball Breaking
14.8%
82.4
-0.8°
2
+1.2
Sweeper Breaking
9.7%
79.0
22.3°
4
+3.0
Slider Breaking
8.8%
83.8
24.0°
1
+0.8
Changeup Offspeed
8.4%
86.7
16.0°
0
-1.3
Slurve Breaking
2.7%
83.9
17.1°
0
+5.7
Slow Curve Other
2.5%
71.7
31.1°
0
-0.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups157
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate10.8%
Pool HR/game day0.94
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB7.6% 10
HR/9—
FIP3.21 21
xFIP4.05
FIP − xFIP-0.85 8
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed81.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Sinker
Hard · 19.7% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.7 mph
Avg launch angle15.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches351
Fastball
Hard · 16.9% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle22.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches301
Cutter
Hard · 16.5% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle27.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches293
Curveball
Breaking · 14.8% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle-0.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches264
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.7% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.0 mph
Avg launch angle22.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches172
Slider
Breaking · 8.8% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle24.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches157
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.4% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.7 mph
Avg launch angle16.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches150
Slurve
Breaking · 2.7% usage
+5.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle17.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches48
Slow Curve
Other · 2.5% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against71.7 mph
Avg launch angle31.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches45
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Seth Lugo.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.3 EV · 401 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
9
2
107.8
2026-07-07
8
1
111.5
2026-07-01
8
2
111.4
2026-06-25
8
1
108.0
2026-06-19
8
0
105.0
2026-06-10
9
0
106.6
2026-06-04
9
3
109.6
2026-05-30
9
2
108.0
2026-05-24
9
1
110.9
2026-05-18
9
1
110.0
2026-05-13
9
1
110.3
2026-05-07
9
1
108.8
2026-05-02
9
0
108.6
2026-04-26
9
1
109.9
2026-04-20
9
0
107.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Seth Lugo isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.