31
HRs allowed
11.6%
HR rate (pool)
9.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.69
FIP
4.22
xFIP
-0.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
22
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 22th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 113.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 5 HR ↑
15D · 6 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Seth Lugo.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
19.7%
85.4
13.1°
6
-0.5
Fastball Hard
16.6%
84.8
25.0°
4
+3.1
Cutter Hard
15.9%
81.1
26.6°
3
-0.1
Curveball Breaking
14.9%
81.3
-4.0°
5
+2.0
Sweeper Breaking
11.3%
78.2
18.4°
4
+2.0
Slider Breaking
9.2%
82.0
24.0°
1
+0.9
Changeup Offspeed
8.9%
83.7
13.1°
1
-0.4
Slow Curve Other
2.2%
72.9
29.9°
0
-0.2
Slurve Breaking
1.5%
83.8
20.7°
0
+4.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups267
HRs allowed (pool)31
Pool HR rate11.6%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups10
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB9.9% 22
HR/9—
FIP3.69 33
xFIP4.22
FIP − xFIP-0.53 15
Barrel% allowed21.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 19.7% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed6
Pitches579
Fastball
Hard · 16.6% usage
+3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle25.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches487
Cutter
Hard · 15.9% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches466
Curveball
Breaking · 14.9% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle-4.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches438
Sweeper
Breaking · 11.3% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.2 mph
Avg launch angle18.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches331
Slider
Breaking · 9.2% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle24.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches270
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.9% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches262
Slow Curve
Other · 2.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.9 mph
Avg launch angle29.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches64
Slurve
Breaking · 1.5% usage
+4.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle20.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches43
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Seth Lugo.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
31 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 396 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
9
0
109.7
2026-09-17
9
5
107.2
2026-09-11
9
1
113.6
2026-09-05
9
0
109.8
2026-08-30
8
2
104.7
2026-08-25
8
0
103.6
2026-08-19
9
1
110.0
2026-08-14
6
1
107.0
2026-08-08
9
1
106.7
2026-08-02
9
1
105.0
2026-07-28
9
0
103.6
2026-07-22
9
1
110.5
2026-07-17
7
1
108.9
2026-07-12
9
2
107.8
2026-07-07
8
1
111.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Seth Lugo isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Seth Lugo isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
131
10
8%
9
5
56%
18
3
17%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 16. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Seth Lugo
How many home runs has Seth Lugo allowed this season?
Seth Lugo has allowed 31 home runs across 31 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Seth Lugo?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Seth Lugo include Spencer Torkelson (3), Dillon Dingler (2), Junior Caminero (2) and 50 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.