11
HRs allowed
7.0%
HR rate (pool)
12.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.87
FIP
4.25
xFIP
-0.38
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
49
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 49th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 386 ft
max EV allowed 116.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Shane Baz.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
33.8%
82.6
33.8°
3
+0.1
Knuckle Curve Breaking
32.9%
84.8
0.7°
2
+0.5
Cutter Hard
17.3%
83.2
16.4°
3
-1.1
Changeup Offspeed
8.3%
76.5
8.6°
1
+0.5
Sinker Hard
7.8%
84.2
9.8°
0
-1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups158
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate7.0%
Pool HR/game day0.58
Top-15 matchups18
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB12.6% 49
HR/9—
FIP3.87 42
xFIP4.25
FIP − xFIP-0.38 24
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 33.8% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle33.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches648
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 32.9% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle0.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches632
Cutter
Hard · 17.3% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches332
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.3% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.5 mph
Avg launch angle8.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches159
Sinker
Hard · 7.8% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches149
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Shane Baz.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 386 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
8
0
108.9
2026-07-07
9
0
106.9
2026-06-29
7
0
107.5
2026-06-23
7
1
108.7
2026-06-18
6
0
106.4
2026-06-12
6
0
109.0
2026-06-07
7
1
109.5
2026-06-02
9
0
107.1
2026-05-26
9
0
116.9
2026-05-20
9
1
115.8
2026-05-15
9
1
111.6
2026-05-09
9
1
108.4
2026-05-04
9
1
110.6
2026-04-28
9
0
109.9
2026-04-21
9
1
105.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Shane Baz isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.