TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

ATH @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Jonah Heim conv 19 · vs Schultz ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 26 · vs Ginn → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Noah Schultz LHP · CWS

leak 95

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jonah Heim — D ●●●○○

2 Shea Langeliers — C ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

FADE J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 85

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

3 Tristan Peters — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.247 · 89.3 · 9.6% 25.0% 26.2% F B O C 55

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Ginn — 0.245 · 90.5 · 10.2% 23.1% 18.9% F B O C 55

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Schultz Edge — 0.228 · 91.6 · 13.2% 9.1% 20.3% F B O C 57

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Ginn Edge — 0.303 · 94.4 · 11.6% 0.0% 22.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Schultz Edge — 0.215 · 87.3 · 9.2% 16.7% 21.8% F B O D 48

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Ginn Edge — 0.182 · 87.1 · 5.8% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 38

· CWS Kyle Teel COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.140 · 85.0 · 9.6% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 38

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Schultz Edge — 0.091 · 89.6 · 9.0% 14.3% 10.5% F B O D 38

· ATH Colby Thomas vs Schultz Edge — 0.162 · 90.0 · 11.1% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 42

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.122 · 87.5 · 6.6% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Ginn — 0.115 · 87.8 · 5.4% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 30

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.185 · 89.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 41

· ATH Alika Williams COOL vs Schultz Edge — 0.155 · 85.7 · — 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 25

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.143 · 89.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 32

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Schultz Edge — 0.099 · 84.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· ATH Joshua Kuroda-Grauer vs Schultz Edge — 0.097 · 87.3 · — 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 26

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Schultz — 0.111 · 89.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 68.7% BRK 22.1% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Shea Langeliers R Edge

16.8% 16.1% 5.0% 14.8% C 57 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.7% 2.9% 8.3% 6.6% D 48 —

132

Colby Thomas R Edge

16.7% 14.8% 0.0% 12.2% D 42 —

166

Henry Bolte R Edge

7.1% 8.8% 5.6% 7.4% D 38 —

187

Lawrence Butler L

6.5% 9.7% 4.5% 6.6% D 35 —

220

Jacob Wilson R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 29 —

232

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 26 —

234

Alika Williams R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Schultz's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.2% ← leak OFF 19.2% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.1% 22.2% 15.6% 19.8% C 56 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.9% 12.5% 13.2% 13.5% C 55 —

Miguel Vargas R

17.3% 13.8% 12.0% 15.2% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

140

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.6% 6.8% 6.0% 10.2% D 41 —

163

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.7% 0.0% 4.4% 5.3% D 38 —

169

Kyle Teel L Edge

19.0% — 0.0% 13.8% D 38 —

203

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.6% 0.0% 7.3% 6.5% D 33 —

207

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.5% 4.8% 0.0% 3.9% D 32 —

216

Chase Meidroth R

4.6% 2.3% 6.1% 4.6% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Langeliers Heim Montgomery Vargas Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Schultz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Colson Montgomery — · 55

Miguel Vargas — · 55

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Schultz · LHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 57 C — WARM 25 0.228 91.6 13.2% 34.6%vs LHP 417 18.8% 9.1% 20.3% 17

2 Jonah Heim 48 D — · 72 0.215 87.3 9.2% 35.0%vs LHP 411 15.4% 16.7% 21.8% 30

3 Colby Thomas 42 D — · 132 0.162 90.0 11.1% 17.4%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 17

4 Henry Bolte 38 D — COOL 166 0.091 89.6 9.0% 42.9%vs LHP 422 11.8% 14.3% 10.5% 31

5 Lawrence Butler 35 D — WARM 187 0.111 89.0 8.6% 16.2% 402 3.9% 0.0% 5.3% 24

6 Jacob Wilson 29 D — COOL 220 0.099 84.0 4.2% 7.1%vs LHP 375 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 16

7 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 26 D — · 232 0.097 87.3 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 36

8 Alika Williams 25 D — COOL 234 0.155 85.7 — 11.1%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 18

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 56 C — WARM 32 0.303 94.4 11.6% 40.0%vs RHP 409 17.5% 0.0% 22.0% 3

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 55 C — COOL 35 0.247 89.3 9.6% 26.3%vs RHP 398 26.0% 25.0% 26.2% 35

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C — WARM 38 0.245 90.5 10.2% 16.0%vs RHP 389 22.1% 23.1% 18.9% 42

4 Andrew Benintendi 41 D — COOL 140 0.185 89.1 8.1% 17.9%vs RHP 391 15.3% 0.0% 10.6% 26

5 Tristan Peters 38 D — · 163 0.182 87.1 5.8% 10.6%vs RHP 377 9.2% 20.0% 11.3% 34

6 Kyle Teel 38 D — COOL 169 0.140 85.0 9.6% 28.6%vs RHP 389 16.7% 16.7% 9.1% 21

7 Sam Antonacci 33 D — COOL 203 0.122 87.5 6.6% 11.6%vs RHP 405 8.0% 10.0% 6.9% 35

8 Braden Montgomery 32 D — COOL 207 0.143 89.5 5.1% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 35

9 Chase Meidroth 30 D — COOL 216 0.115 87.8 5.4% 14.3%vs RHP 376 6.4% 7.7% 6.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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