TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TB

Neutral air · 1.04×

SEA @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 33 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 43 · vs Hancock → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 96

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cole Young +850 D ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 39

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +525 D ●●●●○

3 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 53.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Hancock +255 0.270 · 93.1 · 11.2% 53.8% 32.9% F B O C+ 69

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Seymour +390 0.276 · 93.0 · 11.4% 30.0% 36.3% F B O C+ 65

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Seymour — 0.224 · 90.5 · 11.7% 0.0% 19.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Hancock Edge +525 0.139 · 88.2 · 6.0% 36.4% 16.8% F B O D 45

· SEA Cole Young vs Seymour +850 0.156 · 88.3 · 6.5% 25.0% 20.4% F B O D 46

· TB Richie Palacios vs Hancock Edge +950 0.101 · 86.0 · 5.6% 22.2% 13.2% F B O D 37

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Seymour Edge +425 0.170 · 91.3 · 8.1% 16.7% 13.0% F B O D 48

· TB Ben Williamson vs Hancock — 0.094 · 87.9 · 4.4% 14.3% 7.9% F B O D 34

· TB Nick Fortes vs Hancock — 0.081 · 86.3 · 4.0% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 32

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Seymour +850 0.198 · 86.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 46

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Seymour Edge +280 0.146 · 88.4 · 9.7% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 46

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Hancock Edge +500 0.168 · 90.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 48

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Hancock +525 0.165 · 91.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Seymour +950 0.137 · — · 7.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 38

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Seymour +575 0.102 · 87.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Hancock Edge — 0.069 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 21

· TB Taylor Walls vs Hancock Edge +950 0.068 · 85.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.2% ← leak OFF 31.4% BRK 27.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L

19.0% 8.2% 18.8% 16.0% C+ 65 +390

Luke Raley L

19.8% 7.4% 14.7% 16.4% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.7% 5.1% 9.0% 8.2% D 48 +425

Cole Young L

6.0% 0.0% 10.3% 6.0% D 46 +850

Colt Emerson L

6.5% 5.9% 4.2% 5.7% D 46 +850

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.0% 11.8% 12.2% 11.5% D 46 +280

151

J.P. Crawford L

5.8% 12.5% 8.5% 7.2% D 38 +950

163

Josh Naylor L

4.3% 2.1% 7.7% 4.7% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (38.2% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 73.7% ← leak BRK 21.0% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.1% 13.1% 5.6% 13.7% C+ 69 +255

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.1% 12.3% 6.0% 10.4% D 48 +500

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.6% 2.1% 9.4% 4.2% D 45 +525

127

Yandy Diaz R

4.9% 12.1% 2.8% 7.0% D 41 +525

157

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.3% 2.5% 4.2% 4.4% D 37 +950

178

Ben Williamson R

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 34 —

193

Nick Fortes R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 32 —

203

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% D 30 +950

226

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.7% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Young Caminero Mullins Palacios

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero +255 · 69

Dominic Canzone +390 · 65

Cole Young +850 · 46

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 65 C+ +390 · 8 0.276 93.0 11.4% 28.6% 400 17.8% 30.0% 36.3% 27

2 Luke Raley 55 C — COOL 39 0.224 90.5 11.7% 25.5% 385 14.5% 0.0% 19.0% 18

3 Randy Arozarena 48 D +425 · 77 0.170 91.3 8.1% 20.0%vs LHP 395 10.7% 16.7% 13.0% 32

4 Cole Young 46 D +850 WARM 86 0.156 88.3 6.5% 17.4%vs LHP 387 11.0% 25.0% 20.4% 27

5 Colt Emerson 46 D +850 COOL 87 0.198 86.5 6.8% 33.3%vs LHP 369 13.8% 0.0% 18.2% 19

6 Cal Raleigh 46 D +280 WARM 91 0.146 88.4 9.7% 7.1%vs LHP 390 12.5% 8.3% 7.3% 23

7 J.P. Crawford 38 D +950 COOL 151 0.137 — 7.7% 12.5%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 29

8 Josh Naylor 36 D +575 COOL 163 0.102 87.6 6.2% 6.2%vs LHP 390 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% 39

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 69 C+ +255 WARM 4 0.270 93.1 11.2% 41.5%vs RHP 408 27.8% 53.8% 32.9% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 48 D +500 · 78 0.168 90.9 10.0% 19.7%vs RHP 391 12.5% 0.0% 12.0% 38

3 Cedric Mullins 45 D +525 WARM 95 0.139 88.2 6.0% 20.0%vs RHP 393 13.7% 36.4% 16.8% 25

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +525 COOL 127 0.165 91.0 8.0% 24.3%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 35

5 Richie Palacios 37 D +950 WARM 157 0.101 86.0 5.6% 7.4%vs RHP 396 4.4% 22.2% 13.2% 22

6 Ben Williamson 34 D — WARM 178 0.094 87.9 4.4% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.1% 14.3% 7.9% 19

7 Nick Fortes 32 D — WARM 193 0.081 86.3 4.0% 10.5%vs RHP 400 2.0% 14.3% 7.5% 20

8 Taylor Walls 30 D +950 WARM 203 0.068 85.2 5.4% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 25

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 226 0.069 84.2 — 4.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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