10
HRs allowed
20.0%
HR rate (pool)
14.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.14
FIP
4.2
xFIP
-0.06
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
67
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 67th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 406 ft
max EV allowed 110.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 5 HR
30D · 7 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ian Seymour.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
31.0%
78.4
14.9°
0
-2.4
Fastball Hard
24.7%
82.3
33.9°
3
+0.2
Sweeper Breaking
24.7%
79.0
32.4°
3
-1.6
Sinker Hard
13.7%
78.5
15.4°
3
+2.3
Slider Breaking
3.4%
76.7
18.6°
1
+2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups50
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate20.0%
Pool HR/game day1.67
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.4% 67
HR/9—
FIP4.14 54
xFIP4.2
FIP − xFIP-0.06 43
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Changeup
Offspeed · 31.0% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.4 mph
Avg launch angle14.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches332
Fastball
Hard · 24.7% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle33.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches265
Sweeper
Breaking · 24.7% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.0 mph
Avg launch angle32.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches265
Sinker
Hard · 13.7% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle15.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches147
Slider
Breaking · 3.4% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.7 mph
Avg launch angle18.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches36
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ian Seymour.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 406 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 6 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
7
2
103.2
2026-07-07
8
1
105.3
2026-07-02
8
2
106.7
2026-06-20
9
2
110.9
2026-06-08
9
1
106.3
2026-05-15
9
2
110.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ian Seymour isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.