8
HRs allowed
7.9%
HR rate (pool)
23.2%
Overall HR/FB
3.75
FIP
3.43
xFIP
+0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
57.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.4 EV · 409 ft
max EV allowed 114.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Trevor McDonald.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
57.1%
86.2
6.7°
2
-0.8
Slider Breaking
26.2%
82.3
3.6°
2
-0.7
Changeup Offspeed
14.9%
75.7
6.3°
2
+2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups101
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate7.9%
Pool HR/game day0.67
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB23.2% 93
HR/9—
FIP3.75 37
xFIP3.43
FIP − xFIP+0.32 66
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed57.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 57.1% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches622
Slider
Breaking · 26.2% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches285
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.9% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches162
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Trevor McDonald.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.4 EV · 409 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 12 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
9
1
103.9
2026-07-07
7
0
102.7
2026-07-01
7
0
107.6
2026-06-20
7
0
105.7
2026-06-13
9
2
103.6
2026-06-07
8
0
102.5
2026-06-02
9
1
108.9
2026-05-27
9
0
108.8
2026-05-22
9
0
114.4
2026-05-16
9
1
109.5
2026-05-11
9
1
105.8
2026-05-04
9
2
108.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Trevor McDonald isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.