9
HRs allowed
8.3%
HR rate (pool)
23.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.79
FIP
3.46
xFIP
+0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
92
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 92th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
11.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 413 ft
max EV allowed 114.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Trevor McDonald.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
57.6%
86.1
7.5°
3
-0.6
Slider Breaking
25.9%
82.6
4.3°
2
-0.2
Changeup Offspeed
14.8%
77.2
6.4°
2
+2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups109
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate8.3%
Pool HR/game day0.69
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB23.1% 92
HR/9—
FIP3.79 39
xFIP3.46
FIP − xFIP+0.32 67
Barrel% allowed11.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Sinker
Hard · 57.6% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle7.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches666
Slider
Breaking · 25.9% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle4.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches299
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.8% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches171
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Trevor McDonald.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 413 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-20
8
1
106.8
2026-07-12
9
1
103.9
2026-07-07
7
0
102.7
2026-07-01
7
0
107.6
2026-06-20
7
0
105.7
2026-06-13
9
2
103.6
2026-06-07
8
0
102.5
2026-06-02
9
1
108.9
2026-05-27
9
0
108.8
2026-05-22
9
0
114.4
2026-05-16
9
1
109.5
2026-05-11
9
1
105.8
2026-05-04
9
2
108.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Trevor McDonald isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Trevor McDonald isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
52
5
10%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Trevor McDonald
How many home runs has Trevor McDonald allowed this season?
Trevor McDonald has allowed 9 home runs across 13 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Trevor McDonald?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Trevor McDonald include Brent Rooker (1), Ezequiel Tovar (1), Ian Happ (1) and 7 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.