10
HRs allowed
7.1%
HR rate (pool)
14.4%
Overall HR/FB
3.65
FIP
3.97
xFIP
-0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
67
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 67th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
79.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.1 EV · 378 ft
max EV allowed 114.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Dustin May.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
26.7%
83.9
27.1°
2
-0.9
Cutter Hard
22.5%
82.0
10.6°
1
-1.0
Sweeper Breaking
19.3%
78.8
12.5°
1
+1.0
Sinker Hard
17.7%
84.9
5.5°
1
-1.7
Changeup Offspeed
6.9%
81.9
11.5°
2
+3.2
Curveball Breaking
6.9%
84.5
-6.7°
0
+2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups140
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate7.1%
Pool HR/game day0.59
Top-15 matchups2
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.4% 67
HR/9—
FIP3.65 34
xFIP3.97
FIP − xFIP-0.32 28
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed79.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 26.7% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle27.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches399
Cutter
Hard · 22.5% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle10.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches336
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.3% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle12.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches288
Sinker
Hard · 17.7% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle5.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches264
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.9% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches103
Curveball
Breaking · 6.9% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle-6.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches103
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Dustin May.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.1 EV · 378 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
6
0
108.7
2026-07-06
9
0
114.8
2026-07-02
7
0
101.4
2026-06-21
6
3
108.2
2026-06-15
6
0
104.9
2026-06-09
7
0
105.6
2026-06-02
9
0
108.3
2026-05-27
9
0
109.1
2026-05-21
9
2
103.8
2026-05-15
9
0
111.6
2026-05-09
9
1
110.1
2026-05-03
9
0
106.7
2026-04-27
9
0
104.0
2026-04-21
9
1
110.9
2026-04-10
9
0
114.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Dustin May isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.