9
HRs allowed
8.9%
HR rate (pool)
10.8%
Overall HR/FB
2.44
FIP
2.69
xFIP
-0.25
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
33
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 33th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
56.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.6 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 111.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tarik Skubal.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
37.1%
79.7
28.9°
5
-0.7
Changeup Offspeed
24.9%
78.0
5.3°
3
-0.6
Sinker Hard
19.4%
84.9
11.8°
0
+0.4
Slider Breaking
14.5%
86.6
4.3°
1
-1.7
Curveball Breaking
4.1%
85.5
24.7°
1
+1.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups101
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate8.9%
Pool HR/game day0.75
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB10.8% 33
HR/9—
FIP2.44 6
xFIP2.69
FIP − xFIP-0.25 33
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed56.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 37.1% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle28.9°
HRs allowed5
Pitches458
Changeup
Offspeed · 24.9% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.0 mph
Avg launch angle5.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches307
Sinker
Hard · 19.4% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches240
Slider
Breaking · 14.5% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle4.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches179
Curveball
Breaking · 4.1% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle24.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches50
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tarik Skubal.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.6 EV · 399 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 12 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-12
8
0
104.0
2026-07-07
8
1
107.8
2026-06-30
8
1
102.3
2026-06-24
8
2
104.9
2026-06-19
8
1
104.3
2026-06-13
8
0
101.5
2026-05-04
9
1
105.7
2026-04-29
9
2
111.8
2026-04-23
9
0
105.0
2026-04-18
9
0
105.9
2026-04-12
8
1
107.0
2026-04-07
9
0
109.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tarik Skubal isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.