15
HRs allowed
7.5%
HR rate (pool)
15.9%
Overall HR/FB
2.6
FIP
2.62
xFIP
-0.03
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
71
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 71th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.4 EV · 407 ft
max EV allowed 114.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tarik Skubal.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
37.7%
81.3
28.3°
7
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
25.3%
78.5
4.2°
4
-0.9
Sinker Hard
18.1%
83.1
12.6°
2
-0.4
Slider Breaking
13.7%
84.3
10.4°
2
-1.5
Curveball Breaking
5.2%
82.7
11.8°
1
+0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups199
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate7.5%
Pool HR/game day0.6
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB15.9% 71
HR/9—
FIP2.6 6
xFIP2.62
FIP − xFIP-0.03 42
Barrel% allowed16.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 37.7% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle28.3°
HRs allowed7
Pitches982
Changeup
Offspeed · 25.3% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches659
Sinker
Hard · 18.1% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle12.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches471
Slider
Breaking · 13.7% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle10.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches356
Curveball
Breaking · 5.2% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle11.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches136
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tarik Skubal.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.4 EV · 407 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-25
1
0
80.1
2026-09-19
8
1
107.0
2026-09-14
9
1
114.1
2026-09-08
7
1
109.4
2026-09-03
6
0
110.4
2026-08-28
9
0
110.2
2026-08-22
9
0
114.0
2026-08-16
8
0
111.6
2026-08-10
5
1
110.8
2026-08-04
9
2
102.8
2026-07-29
9
0
108.7
2026-07-24
9
0
107.1
2026-07-18
9
0
106.6
2026-07-12
8
0
104.0
2026-07-07
8
1
107.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tarik Skubal isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Tarik Skubal isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
85
6
7%
43
3
7%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Tarik Skubal
How many home runs has Tarik Skubal allowed this season?
Tarik Skubal has allowed 15 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Tarik Skubal?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Tarik Skubal include Elly De La Cruz (2), Zach Neto (2), Agustin Ramirez (1) and 32 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.